What to know:
- Allium report found US users lead Polymarket political trading by both wallet count and contract volume despite platform restrictions.
- American traders showed stronger interest in global conflict markets, with Iranian conflict predictions dominating their activity.
- Polymarket remains restricted in over 34 countries, with additional regional bans and trading limitations in several jurisdictions.
Polymarket US is now under renewed scrutiny after a recent report showed that, despite its official ban on all US citizens, Americans still represent the largest political market in Polymarket’s network.
According to a report by the blockchain analytics firm Allium, users in the United States of America make the most political trading transactions on Polymarket, based on both wallet count and contract volume.
Allium argued that restrictions on US participation did not reduce demand. Rather, it shifted activities outside the US jurisdictional regulation as the market for political prediction stayed strong.
Polymarket US Faces Access Questions
Following the settlement of $1.4 million that Polymarket reached with the CFTC in 2022, the company barred its users from participating in its global marketplace, particularly Americans. As part of the deal, the company had to desist from providing its prediction markets to US residents.
Despite all these limitations, Allium’s research shows that many Americans use the platform via other routes.
The document talks about Polymarket’s global platform and is not to be confused with Polymarket US, which was created in December and is a regulated platform. Polymarket US is a US-regulated version of Polymarket and provides a more limited set of prediction markets.
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Polymarket US Users Favor Global Conflicts
Allium has also discovered that users from the United States are more interested in conflict markets than users from other nations.
According to the report, five out of the twelve markets most traded in by US users are connected to the Iranian conflict. However, election markets have not been popular among US citizens despite being available on Polymarket US and Kalshi.
A research firm has established that users in the USA are putting more activity into international events than election markets at home.
This report is consistent with the results of a study conducted by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane in June.
According to Crane, roughly 30% of the trading activity on Polymarket is generated by users in the United States. The estimates by Crane showed that Americans traded between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion on Polymarket between May 2025 and April 2026.
This research analyzed trading time and market preference to determine what activity was most probably originated by the Americans, even though Polymarket was blocking American IPs and preventing access via VPNs.
Polymarket Blocked in 34+ Countries
The report further indicated that Polymarket is currently not accessible in more than 34 Countries. In Spain, access to both Polymarket and Kalshi has been banned by the authorities as they check for any possible license requirements.
In the meantime, the traders from Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, and Poland can only unwind their existing deals and not trade any further.
Polymarket is also not available in Ontario, Canada, along with the Crimean, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions of Ukraine.
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