Pre-Market Update: Stock Futures Climb as Fed Expected to Hike Rates for First Time in Three Years

TLDR

• Stock futures climbed Wednesday morning with the S&P 500 up 0.2% and Nasdaq up 0.4% in premarket trading
• The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike interest rates for the first time in over three years, with 92% odds per CME Group
• Bitcoin dropped 2% to around $75,000 after the Senate failed to pass the Clarity Act crypto regulatory framework
• Oil prices eased early Wednesday after surging Tuesday on concerns about Houthi disruptions to Saudi Arabian crude supply
• The 10-year Treasury yield has hit its highest level since the financial crisis, putting pressure on stock sentiment

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US stock futures edged higher on Wednesday morning as investors looked past Tuesday’s losses and positioned ahead of a major Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.4%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added around 101 points, or 0.2%.

Tuesday’s session closed in the red after oil prices surged to their highest level in months. Concerns that Yemen’s Houthis could disrupt crude supply from Saudi Arabia drove the move.

By Wednesday morning, oil prices were pulling back. Brent crude futures slid 0.6% to $108.13 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate dropped 1.1% to $104.66 a barrel. That pullback helped lift futures.

Fed Rate Hike Decision

The main focus Wednesday is the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. Traders overwhelmingly expect the Fed to raise interest rates for the first time in more than three years, with CME Group pricing in 92% odds of a hike.

🚨WARNING: The Fed is poised to hike rates for the first time in three years.

Odds have surged to 94.5%, up from under 50% a month ago.

The July vote was already 9-3, with three officials pushing for a hike then.

Nearly every major Wall Street bank expects it, with most… pic.twitter.com/1t7cJlma76

— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) September 15, 2026

The 10-year Treasury yield has already climbed to its highest level since the financial crisis, weighing on stocks and adding pressure on policymakers.

Some analysts say the Fed needs to follow through. Brent Wilsey, chief investment officer at Wilsey Asset Management, warned that holding rates steady could “damage the Fed’s credibility, and reignite concerns that the central bank is caving to political pressure.”

President Trump has repeatedly called for lower interest rates, setting up a potential clash with the Fed if Chairman Kevin Warsh moves ahead with the hike.

Investors will also be watching the Fed’s dot plot release and Warsh’s press conference for clues on the path ahead.

Crypto Falls on Senate Vote Failure

Bitcoin fell about 2% to around the $75,000 level after the US Senate failed to pass a key procedural vote on the Clarity Act, a proposed regulatory framework for digital assets.

The vote’s failure added uncertainty to the crypto market, which had already been under pressure from the broader risk-off mood in markets.

On the economic data front, August retail sales are expected to show a pickup. A housing market indicator from the National Association of Home Builders is expected to cool as mortgage rates remain elevated.

Stock markets and crypto are heading into Wednesday’s session with a lot riding on what the Fed decides. The combination of high yields, sticky inflation, elevated oil prices, and regulatory setbacks for crypto makes this one of the more closely watched Fed decisions in years.

Traders will be watching Warsh’s words as closely as the rate decision itself.