Veteran Trader Peter Brandt recently weighed in on an X discussion which centered around valuation models and their implications for Bitcoin price.
A discussion began on X stemming from Strive’s Strategist Joe Burnett’s X post that the Bitcoin Power Law model suggests BTC should be around $163,500 today. Burnett speculates that a major rotation of capital into Bitcoin is approaching. Bitcoin currently trades above $75,000, about 53% away from the Power Law model’s target of $163,500.
Cheds Trading, a crypto trader, reacted to Burnett’s tweet, questioning the need for fancy valuation models.
“Why do we need fancy models when we can just let the market tell us what the price should be? I really don’t understand the ‘market is wrong’ mentality,” Cheds Trading wrote.
Cheds’ Trading comment attracted a response from Veteran Trader Peter Brandt who chipped in his take. Brandt responded, saying, “Price is never wrong. Price is king. Opinions are a dime a dozen.”
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Brandt’s reply is a validation of a principle that has been a cornerstone of technical analysis: the market is never wrong. The market value at any given time prices in variables such as investor sentiment, market forces, and worldwide happenings. Brandt’s statement that “price is never wrong” and that “price is king” is proof that market prices are the most reliable indicator, more so than theoretical models or external narratives.
Bitcoin price action
Bitcoin returned above $75,000 after failing to break through $78,000 on Tuesday. Bitcoin reached a high of $78,015 on May 26 after three days of increases, but bulls could not advance the move.
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At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 1.58% in the last 24 hours to $75,797 as the broader crypto market largely traded in losses, with a few assets seeing gains.
What traders are now watching is a setup forming on the Bitcoin chart. The 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA are on track to cross in the coming weeks, a setup known as a golden cross, which is generally taken as a positive signal. A break of either moving average before the golden cross setup could set the direction for crypto markets through the next several weeks.
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