Reuters/Ipsos poll flags democracy fears as Polymarket fades Shepherd to 1%

Rebecca Shepherd 2026 Makerfield By-Election: “No” Surges to 99.25% on Polymarket

A Reuters/Ipsos poll ahead of the United States’ 250th anniversary found rising public doubts about the country’s long-term cohesion and the resilience of its democracy. On Polymarket, the contract “Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?” is priced heavily toward “No,” with the implied probability far above the “Yes” side.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket prices “No” at 99.25% and “Yes” at 0.75% for Rebecca Shepherd winning the 2026 Makerfield by-election.
• Traders kept the market skewed toward “No” as broader political polarization and democratic stability concerns dominated headlines.
• The contract is active with $4,317,926 in volume; the past 24-hour change is +79.55 percentage points in the dataset.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted over four days and concluding Monday found that two out of five Americans do not believe the United States will endure as a single country for another 250 years. The findings come as the country approaches its 250th anniversary next month and as President Donald Trump has taken a central role in planned July 4 events that also double as political messaging ahead of November’s midterm elections. The poll showed 38% of respondents said they did not think the U.S. would exist as a single country 250 years from now, including 40% of Democrats and 26% of Republicans. Two-thirds agreed with a statement that American democracy was in danger of failing, with the share up from 57% in a poll conducted in August of last year. The survey also found 77% of respondents said it was likely political violence would increase in the next five years, and a majority said the anniversary celebrations had become too political.

Polymarket Odds & Liquidity: $4.32M Volume, 99.25% “No” vs 0.75% “Yes” and +79.55-Point 24h Reprice

On Polymarket, “No” leads at 99.25% versus 0.75% for “Yes” in the Rebecca Shepherd 2026 Makerfield by-election winner market. Total volume stands at $4,317,926, pointing to a heavily one-sided book with traders paying up for the “No” outcome. The tape shows sharp repricing in the dataset, with a 24-hour move of +79.55 percentage points and the latest odds snapshot showing 80.5 alongside a last-5 average of 75.9.

Monitor whether the market’s dominant “No” position holds as volume builds further, and watch for any sustained shift away from the current 99.25% pricing on the leading outcome.

Beyond the By-Election: Poll-Driven U.S. Democracy and National Cohesion Contracts Traders Are Watching

Beyond the UK by-election tape, Polymarket activity is also clustering around higher-level political risk contracts that test voter sentiment and governing stability across major democracies. In the U.S., “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028” shows Gavin Newsom leading at 24.55% with $1,200,318,177 in volume, while Europe’s focus includes “Next French Presidential Election” with Jordan Bardella at 25.5% on $101,077,601. In Latin America, traders are leaning toward “Brazil Presidential Election” with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 51.5% on $100,838,186, alongside “Colombia Presidential Election” pricing Abelardo de la Espriella at 87.5% with $37,411,531 traded.

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