Ross impeachment warning hits Polymarket as Starmer exit odds rise to 91.5%

Wilbur Ross Impeachment Warning Sparks Reprice in Polymarket’s “Next Leader Out of Power Before 2027” Market—Starmer Jum

Comments from former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross warning that Democrats would seek to impeach President Donald Trump if they win the House in November fed into positioning on Polymarket’s “Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)” contract. The market’s leading outcome, “Starmer – UK PM,” last traded at 91.5%, up 1.5 percentage points from 90.0%.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket prices “Starmer – UK PM” as the next leader out of power before 2027 at 91.5% (No 8.5%).
• Traders repriced the contract after renewed public warnings that a Democratic midterm win could trigger impeachment pressure on Trump.
• The contract is set to resolve by 2026-12-31, and the leading outcome is up 20.5 points over the past 24 hours.

Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said he has “no doubt” Democrats would move to impeach President Donald Trump if they win the U.S. House in November, calling the midterm elections “extremely high” stakes for the president. Ross said that if Democrats were to control both the House and the Senate, it would likely clear the path to a conviction in the Senate. Trump was impeached twice during his first term, with both efforts passing the House but failing in the Senate. House Speaker Mike Johnson has also warned Republicans that losing the House would bring renewed investigations aimed at Trump, his family, associates and former Cabinet officials. The report said some Democrats have already introduced impeachment efforts since Trump’s return to the White House, while other party leaders have publicly described impeachment as a tactical question rather than a top priority.

Polymarket Odds and Liquidity: Starmer 91.5% on $7.0M Volume as Petro at 3.45% and Trump at 0.15% Lag Far Behind

On Polymarket, the “Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)” market shows a steep skew toward “Starmer – UK PM,” with Yes at 91.5% versus No at 8.5% on $7,001,157 in volume. The next-highest priced outcome is “Petro – Colombia President” at 3.45% Yes / 96.55% No, underscoring how little probability is being assigned to alternatives. “Trump – USA President” sits at 0.15% Yes / 99.85% No, indicating traders view Trump being the next leader out before 2027 as a tail risk relative to the field. Several other outcomes cluster near a quarter-point or below, including “Netanyahu – Israel PM” at 0.25% Yes / 99.75% No and “None before 2027” at 0.25% Yes / 99.75% No, suggesting liquidity and conviction are concentrated in the market leader.

Watch whether the top line holds above 90% and whether volume continues to concentrate in “Starmer – UK PM” versus smaller bids across “Petro – Colombia President” and “Trump – USA President” ahead of the 2026-12-31 resolution.

Beyond “Next Leader Out”: Other High-Volume Polymarket Politics Contracts Bettors Are Tracking Ahead of 2026-12-31

Away from leadership-turnover timing, Polymarket’s deepest political liquidity is pooling in longer-dated U.S. race pricing, with 19.35% on “Presidential Election Winner 2028” for JD Vance on $641,103,345 in volume and 49.0% on “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028” for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on $665,834,270. The contrast underscores how traders are balancing near-term parliamentary churn against a broader repricing of the 2028 field as positioning migrates toward the platform’s most active election contracts.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
• Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Volume: ~$7,001,157

Top strike rungs

+20 more strikes not shown

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Sources

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