Russia has resumed Urals crude oil shipments from its major western ports after disruptions caused by Ukrainian drone strikes, a development reflected in Polymarket’s WTI Crude Oil Price Predictions for April 2026 market, where the probability of WTI hitting $160 in April has decreased.
Market reaction
The restored shipments add supply back into the market, reducing upward pressure on oil prices. In the WTI Crude Oil Price Predictions for April 2026 market, the likelihood of WTI reaching $160 this month looks lower with Russian barrels flowing again. In the Crude Oil Predictions for June market, odds of crude hitting $90 by end of June may also soften slightly, though the lingering effects of the strikes limit the magnitude of any shift.
Why it matters
The resumption of Urals crude from western ports provides temporary supply relief. Russia’s ability to restart flows partially offsets the disruption from the drone strikes, but the ongoing conflict and continued aerial assaults on both sides mean this recovery could be short-lived. At current odds, a YES position on WTI hitting $160 in April looks less attractive if shipment volumes continue normalizing.
What to watch
New Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure could reverse the supply recovery and reignite price volatility. Russian responses to those strikes matter equally. Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud and Alexander Novak are the two figures most likely to signal any policy shifts from OPEC+ or Russia that would affect supply decisions.
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