Senate Republicans are pushing a merged CLARITY Act draft toward the floor without the Democratic support needed to clear a filibuster, leaving the crypto market-structure bill exposed to a narrowing pre-recess calendar.
The latest draft combines work from the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees and adds more than 70 pages to the legislation that cleared Banking in May. Republicans briefed President Donald Trump on the revised framework Thursday, but Sen. Ruben Gallego, one of the Democrats involved in negotiations, said his party had not signed off on it.
The bill would assign spot-market oversight of qualifying digital commodities to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission while preserving Securities and Exchange Commission authority over securities, token fundraising and issuer disclosures. It also contains registration rules for exchanges, brokers and dealers, Bank Secrecy Act obligations and restrictions on rewards paid for holding stablecoins.
The Senate Banking Committee advanced the earlier text 15-9 on May 14, with Gallego and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks joining Republicans. Their committee votes did not guarantee support for final passage.
Ethics and Stablecoins Block 60-Vote Path
Democratic Sens. Chris Murphy, Chris Van Hollen and Jeff Merkley opposed the bill publicly this week unless it includes conflict-of-interest restrictions covering the president, senior officials, members of Congress and their families.
The senators tied their opposition to Trump’s crypto businesses and income from World Liberty Financial and the TRUMP memecoin. Stablecoin rewards, developer protections, illicit-finance controls and federal preemption remain disputed.
Banking groups want tighter restrictions on rewards paid by exchanges and affiliates that could compete with deposits. Crypto companies are defending transaction-based incentives and protections for non-custodial software developers.
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, leaving the bill at least seven votes short of the 60-vote cloture threshold if every Republican supports it. The House passed its version 294-134 in July 2025, while the Senate Banking vote moved the legislation onto the calendar without securing a floor date.
The dispute extends the 60-vote Senate test that already placed ethics rules, stablecoin rewards and developer protections between the bill and floor passage. Trump has separately pressed the Senate to pass CLARITY before lawmakers leave Washington.
Kalshi Sees Vote, Polymarket Doubts Passage
Prediction markets are pricing two different legislative hurdles.
Kalshi traders placed the chance of a recorded Senate vote before the August recess near 72%. The contract resolves positively if the chamber records a cloture vote on a motion to proceed before Aug. 8, even if the legislation later fails.
Polymarket priced only a 31% chance of enactment in 2026. Its contract had attracted about $1.8 million in volume and resolves yes only if the bill passes both chambers and is signed by Dec. 31.
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