After a year and a half of prolonged decline, the Shiba Inu (SHIB) is showing signs of a local recovery. Following Dogecoin, the current technical setup points to the formation of a mean reversion scenario, which may become decisive for those who have been holding the token since late 2024.
December 2024 marked the last significant peak for SHIB at $0.00003366, after which the meme coin entered a deep drop, losing 84% of its value. However, spring 2026 has brought local optimism. Since March, the price has already shown a 20% increase, rising to $0.00000628.
Attention is focused on the 200-day moving average, which currently stands at $0.0000075, according to the TradingView chart. The realization of a further 18% move toward this level appears mathematically justified, but it carries a hidden challenge.
Why the 200-day average is now a crowded exit for underwater SHIB holders
Market mechanics often pull assets back to their average values after extreme deviations. The $0.0000075 level for Shiba Inu coin is not just a technical line, but a zone of concentrated sell orders from those looking to exit positions with minimal losses.
This growth should not be confused with the start of a new global rally. For many holders, the current scenario represents a strategic opportunity to reduce losses. The market backdrop remains restrained, with the accumulated mass of underwater positions from 2025 creating strong overhead pressure.
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If the 18% upside scenario plays out, the key question will be the behavior of whales near this critical level. Whether SHIB can turn this resistance into support or if this is only a temporary pause before another phase of consolidation within a broader downtrend will be determined in the coming weeks of May.
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