Smotrich touts new West Bank settlements as Polymarket favors Eizenkot at 39%

Smotrich Calls Settlement Expansion a “Revolution” as Polymarket Odds Tick Up for Israel’s Next Prime Minister

Israel Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said the government has launched a “revolution” in settlement expansion after the cabinet approved 13 new settlements in the central occupied West Bank. The comments coincided with a small uptick in Polymarket pricing for the “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?” contract, where Gadi Eizenkot remains the top-priced outcome.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket prices Gadi Eizenkot as the leading pick at 39.45% to be Israel’s next prime minister after the next election.
• Smotrich’s settlement-expansion push and the cabinet’s approval of 13 new West Bank settlements landed as traders kept the market centered on Eizenkot and Netanyahu.
• The contract is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31, with Eizenkot up 0.35 percentage points on the latest update.

Israel’s finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, said Israel has launched a “revolution” in settlement expansion following the cabinet’s approval of 13 new settlements in the central occupied West Bank. Smotrich said the effort would extend outposts beyond the West Bank into the Negev and Galilee, while Israeli officials framed the new settlements as helping entrench control in strategically important areas. The plan centers on corridors along Route 60, a key north-south artery linking Palestinian cities including Nablus, Ramallah and Bethlehem, and extends eastward toward the Jordan Valley. Palestinian officials warned the expansion would further isolate occupied East Jerusalem from the rest of the West Bank and weaken prospects for a two-state solution. The report also cited rising settlement activity since 2022, including increases in new outposts and government funding, alongside a sharp rise in settler violence and property damage in West Bank communities.

Israel PM Market Sees $26.1M Matched Volume as Eizenkot Leads at 39.45% vs Netanyahu at 35.5%

On Polymarket, the multi-outcome market shows Gadi Eizenkot leading at 39.45% Yes / 60.55% No, narrowly ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu at 35.5% Yes / 64.5% No. Naftali Bennett is priced at 12.5% Yes / 87.5% No, while longer shots like Avigdor Lieberman trade at 3.45% Yes / 96.55% No. Total matched volume stands at $26,099,520, and the latest move shows Eizenkot edging up by 0.35 percentage points from 39.1% to 39.45%, keeping the top of the board tightly clustered between the two front-runners.

Any formal election timing signals, major coalition changes, or leadership announcements that could shift pricing between Eizenkot (39.45%) and Netanyahu (35.5%) ahead of the 2026-12-31 resolution date.

Beyond Israel Politics: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Tracking

Beyond Israel’s electoral stakes, Polymarket traders are also rotating into cross-asset wagers where risk appetite can shift quickly. In crypto, “What price will Ethereum hit July 6-12?” shows the “↓ 1,700” band leading at 32.5% on $217,621 in matched volume, with a sharp 15.5 percentage-point move underscoring how fast positioning can change in short-dated markets.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
• Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Volume: ~$26,099,520

Top strike rungs

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