SpaceX (SPCX) Stock: Cathie Wood Buys the Dip as SPCX Falls Toward IPO Price

TLDR

• SpaceX stock fell to $136.78 on Monday, just above its $135 IPO price, after peaking at $225.64 in mid-June
• A Chinese rocket booster recovery on July 10 raised concerns about competition in reusable launch technology
• ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood bought $21.3 million in SPCX stock on Monday across three ETFs, following a $52M purchase last week
• A share lockup expiry — 20% of outstanding stock unlocks after mid-August earnings — is adding selling pressure
• SpaceX trades at nearly 50x estimated 2026 sales and is not expected to be profitable this year

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SpaceX (SPCX) stock has dropped nearly 40% from its June 16 high of $225.64, closing at $139.14 on Monday — a fall that has caught Wall Street’s attention given how bullish analysts remain on the company.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

The stock opened its IPO at $135 on June 11, surged to $150 the following day, and briefly touched $225.64 before reversing course. On Monday it dipped as low as $136.78, a level dangerously close to breaking below that original IPO price.

In premarket trading Tuesday, SPCX was down another 0.4% to $138.61.

Despite that slide, 80% of analysts covering the stock rate it a Buy — well above the S&P 500 average of 55%–60%. The average price target sits around $240, implying a valuation of roughly $3.2 trillion.

Evercore ISI added a fresh Buy rating Tuesday with a $230 price target. It didn’t move the needle.

China’s Rocket Catch

On July 10, a Chinese Long March booster was caught by a ship using movable cables — a reusable rocket achievement that sent a clear message to the market. SpaceX has long been considered the dominant force in reusable launch technology, and that edge is a core part of the bull case.

The Chinese milestone signals that gap may be closing, even if SpaceX still leads in capability and scale.

Lockup and Valuation Pressure

Adding to the pressure is a technical overhang. After SpaceX releases its first quarterly earnings report — expected in mid-August — 20% of outstanding stock will become eligible for trading. That’s a meaningful supply increase, and some investors appear to be selling ahead of it rather than waiting.

Valuation is another sticking point. SpaceX is currently valued at around $1.8 trillion but is not projected to be profitable in 2026. The stock trades at nearly 50 times estimated 2026 revenue — a rich multiple even for a company with strong growth expectations.

Cathie Wood Buys the Dip

Not everyone is backing away. On Monday, ARK Invest purchased 130,241 SPCX stock units — roughly $21.3 million worth — split across ARKK, ARKQ, and ARKW. This follows a $52 million purchase last week.

The buying spree has had limited impact so far. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum remains in place, with the MACD turning negative. Analysts note that $145 is now a resistance level, having previously acted as support. A close below $135 would mark a break of the IPO price — a psychological threshold that matters to many investors.

As of Tuesday morning, SpaceX was trading at $138.61.