SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Down 50% From Peak as 911 Million Shares Hit the Market

TLDR

• Up to 911.5 million SpaceX shares unlocked Thursday, more than 140% of the post-IPO float
• SpaceX stock dropped 12% Wednesday despite beating Q1 revenue estimates of $6.8B, posting $7.8B
• The stock is down over 50% from its June 16 peak of $225.64 and trades below its $135 IPO price
• A separate tranche of 455.8 million shares stays locked because the stock is below the IPO price
• More than 4 billion shares will be available to trade by year-end; Elon Musk’s stake unlocks June 2027

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SpaceX (SPCX) stock was trading around $112.22 in premarket Thursday, up 3.7%, as the first major lockup expiry arrived. The stock had closed at $108.27 Wednesday, down more than 10% on the day.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

The lockup expiry frees up to 911.5 million shares held by insiders and early investors. That single tranche represents more than 140% of the shares that were available to trade after the IPO.

Coming into Thursday, the stock had already fallen more than 50% from its June 16 record high of $225.64. It is also trading below its $135 IPO price, which matters.

Because the stock is below the IPO price, a separate tranche of up to 455.8 million shares remains frozen. That clause was built into the lockup terms.

Thursday’s expiry is the first real chance for employees and early investors to convert their holdings into cash since December 2025. Financial advisor Evan Mills, who works with current and former SpaceX employees, put it plainly: “This is the first real opportunity to turn paper wealth into real, hard cash that they can actually spend.”

SpaceX structured the lockup across nine staggered stages rather than one 180-day cliff. The design was meant to reduce a sudden surge of selling pressure hitting the market at once.

What the Earnings Report Showed

The lockup comes just days after SpaceX posted its first-ever public earnings. Revenue came in at $7.8 billion for the quarter, beating the $6.8 billion Wall Street had expected.

The AI division also surprised to the upside. It reported $1.1 billion in Ebitda, against analyst expectations of a small loss.

Despite those beats, the stock dropped 12% on Wednesday. That kind of reaction after solid numbers can seem strange, but context helps explain it.

SpaceX had rallied nearly 16% on Monday and Tuesday heading into the report. A lot of that move was likely short sellers covering positions ahead of earnings, not fresh buyers stepping in.

Short interest is notably high. S3 Partners data show 35% of the available float is currently sold short, according to Bloomberg. The IPO overhang is a key reason traders are betting against the stock.

What Comes Next

The share unlock schedule continues beyond Thursday. Another 319 million shares are set to free up on August 12, the 70th day after the amended prospectus date. A further 319 million follow 20 days after that.

By the end of 2026, more than 4 billion shares will be eligible for trading. The full 180-day lockup window runs through early December, covering up to 5.33 billion shares in total.

Elon Musk holds 6.4 billion shares including stock options. His extended lockup runs until June 2027.

J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth noted in a research note that investors have been repositioning ahead of Thursday’s event, which may already be softening the potential selling pressure once shares are free to trade.

S3 Partners data confirmed that 35% of the available float remains sold short as of this week.