SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Hits All-Time Low — Can a Pentagon Deal Turn It Around?

TLDR

• SpaceX stock closed at an all-time low of $123.99 on Friday, down nearly 40% from its June 16 high of $201.80
• SpaceX is in talks with the Defense Department to provide AI computing capacity
• Similar deals with Anthropic and Google are projected to generate $26 billion in annual revenue when ramped up
• Piper Sandler upgraded SPCX to a “hold” rating; Wall Street consensus sits at “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $234.78
• SpaceX reported a quarterly loss of $1.27 per share on $4.69 billion in revenue in its last earnings report

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SpaceX stock was trading up 1.2% in premarket Monday at $125.53, attempting to snap a six-day losing streak that pushed the stock to an all-time closing low of $123.99 on Friday — below its $135 IPO price.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

The potential catalyst: The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that SpaceX is in talks with the Defense Department to provide AI computing capacity. If it materializes, it would mirror deals already signed with Anthropic and Google, which are expected to generate roughly $26 billion in annual revenue once fully ramped up.

SpaceX did not respond to a request for comment on the deal talks.

The company’s AI computing infrastructure centers on its Colossus I and II data centers in Memphis, Tennessee, which came with the February merger with xAI. SpaceX also has longer-term plans to place AI data centers in orbit, powered by solar energy.

That orbital ambition hinges on Starship, SpaceX’s fully reusable rocket designed to slash the cost of reaching orbit from thousands of dollars per kilogram to just hundreds. But Starship hit a snag last week when the 13th test flight was scrubbed after some engines failed to ignite. The test was rescheduled for June 23.

What Starship Test 13 Needs to Do

In the rescheduled flight, the booster’s main objectives include a successful launch, stage separation, boostback burn, and landing in the Gulf of America. Starship’s upper stage will attempt to deploy 20 Starlink V3 satellites and try a mid-space reignition of a single Raptor engine before splashing down in the Indian Ocean.

Investors are watching closely. The stock is down almost 40% from its all-time high of $201.80 reached on June 16.

Where Analysts Stand

Piper Sandler upgraded SPCX to “hold” on July 17. The broader analyst picture is more constructive: four firms have given it a Strong Buy, 24 a Buy, eight a Hold, and one a Sell.

Recent initiations include Susquehanna at Neutral with a $170 target, Wedbush at Outperform with a $190 target, TD Cowen at Buy, Needham raising its target from $200 to $250 with a Buy rating, and Royal Bank of Canada at Outperform with a $225 target.

The consensus average price target sits at $234.78, well above current trading levels.

On the earnings front, SpaceX reported a loss of $1.27 per share on revenue of $4.69 billion in its most recent quarter, reported May 7.

Several institutional investors added new positions in SpaceX during the second quarter, including Atwood & Palmer, Marquette Asset Management, and Burkett Financial Services, though the stakes were relatively small.