SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Is Up 30% Before It Even Opens — But Is It Worth It?

TLDR

• SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share, raising funds at a $1.77 trillion valuation — the largest IPO in history.
• The stock is indicated to open at $175 on Friday, roughly 30% above its IPO price.
• Oppenheimer initiated with an “outperform” rating and a $190 price target; New Street Research set a $165 target.
• SpaceX reported a $4.94 billion net loss in 2025 after its xAI merger, reversing a $791 million profit in 2024.
• Morningstar values the stock at just $63 per share, calling it overvalued, while short seller Jim Chanos also questioned the $1.77 trillion valuation.

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SpaceX (SPCX) is set to make history on Friday, with the stock indicated to open at $175 — about 30% above its $135 IPO price. That would push the company’s valuation to roughly $2.29 trillion before it even prints its first trade as a public company.

Many are asking why is SpaceX, $SPCX, NOT trading yet?

Here’s exactly how the IPO process works and when the shares will be available to trade (Bookmark this):

The IPO was quoted at 9:50 AM ET and was expected to begin trading at 10:00 AM ET, but that does NOT guarantee shares…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 12, 2026

The IPO raised funds at a $1.77 trillion valuation after SpaceX sold 555.56 million shares at $135 each on Thursday. That already puts it ahead of JPMorgan Chase, Berkshire Hathaway, Eli Lilly, Meta Platforms, and Elon Musk’s own Tesla.

It’s the biggest IPO ever recorded. Saudi Aramco’s 2019 offering raised $25.6 billion at a $1.71 trillion valuation. SpaceX has already passed that mark.

Retail demand came in above $100 billion, according to Bloomberg. BlackRock alone placed a $5 billion institutional order, per the Wall Street Journal. SpaceX also set aside 30% of the offering for retail buyers — a higher allocation than most large IPOs.

Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet service, generated roughly 60% of the company’s $18.67 billion in 2025 revenue. It now serves around 10.3 million users across 9,600 satellites, reaching customers in 164 countries and territories.

Oppenheimer became the first major brokerage to issue coverage, rating the stock “outperform” with a $190 price target. Analyst Timothy Horan described SpaceX as “the only vertically integrated AI company with the required capital, data, LLMs, hardware, manufacturing and engineering talent.” New Street Research set a 12-month target of $165.

The Bear Case

Not everyone is buying the enthusiasm. Morningstar values SPCX at $63 per share — a 53% discount to the IPO price. Its most optimistic scenario, which it assigns just a 7% probability, only gets to $154. Valuation professor Aswath Damodaran puts the enterprise value at $1.22 trillion.

Short seller Jim Chanos put it plainly: “The company is not worth, in my opinion, $1.75 trillion based on any reasonable assumptions over the next five years.” He pointed out SpaceX trades at roughly 90x sales, compared to Tesla’s 14x multiple.

The financials back up some of that caution. SpaceX posted a $4.94 billion net loss in 2025 after completing its xAI merger, reversing a $791 million profit in 2024. Revenue grew 33% year-over-year, but the bottom line moved in the wrong direction.

Governance and Index Inclusion

Elon Musk holds an estimated 80–85% of voting rights. That leaves public stockholders with limited say over how the company is run — a structure that’s drawing scrutiny alongside the valuation debate.

On index inclusion, Nasdaq recently changed listing rules that could ease SPCX’s path into the Nasdaq 100. However, S&P Global declined to make exceptions for early S&P 500 entry. That means forced buying from passive index funds may take longer than some investors expect.

Space-related stocks including AST SpaceMobile, Viasat, and Rocket Lab all dipped in early trading on Friday ahead of SpaceX’s debut.