SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Set to Join Nasdaq 100 as Wall Street Eyes 19% Upside

TLDR

• SpaceX stock rose 5.7% in its first week after joining the Russell 1000 index
• SPCX is set to join the Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday, which could trigger billions in passive fund buying
• Only 6 of the last 21 stocks to enter the Nasdaq 100 rose in their first week; the average first-week drop was 3.8%
• Wall Street’s average price target of $188.17 implies 19% upside from current levels around $161.78
• SpaceX reported $18.7 billion in revenue last year but posted a nearly $5 billion loss

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SpaceX’s first week as a public company went better than most. The Elon Musk-led rocket and satellite firm rose 5.7% during its first week in the Russell 1000, even as the stock had previously pulled back 24% from its record closing high of $201.80.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

Now the next big test is coming. SPCX is scheduled to join the Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday, a move that typically drives passive buying from index-tracking funds worth potentially billions of dollars.

That sounds like good news. But the historical data tells a more complicated story.

Of the 21 stocks that joined the Nasdaq 100 over the past two years, only six rose in their first week. The average first-week move was actually a drop of 3.8%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Recent entrants had it rough. CoreWeave, Nebius, and Rocket Lab all fell more than 15% in their first week after joining on June 22, hit by a broader tech selloff. That skews the recent data, but the pattern still holds — new additions don’t always get a welcome bump.

Some of the bigger first-week drops include Super Micro Computer, which fell 11% in July 2024, Strategy dropping 9% in December 2024, and Shopify sliding 8% in May 2025.

The longer-term picture looks better. The average one-month return after joining the Nasdaq 100 is 3.6%, and the three-month average is a 6.3% gain.

What Wall Street Thinks

Despite the recent pullback, Wall Street hasn’t turned bearish. The average analyst price target for SPCX sits at $188.17, according to Yahoo Finance. That’s roughly 19% above where the stock is currently trading around $161.78.

The bull case rests on a few pillars. SpaceX dominates orbital launches. Starlink, its low Earth orbit satellite internet business, leads the field in satellites deployed. The company pegs its total addressable market across space, internet, and AI at $28.5 trillion.

The vertically integrated model, built around reusable rockets, gives SpaceX a cost advantage that’s hard to replicate quickly.

The Risks Are Real

The bear case is harder to brush aside. SpaceX lost nearly $5 billion last year on $18.7 billion in revenue. That’s a loss most companies wouldn’t survive, even if SpaceX’s ambitions are on a different scale.

Musk running two major public companies — SpaceX and Tesla — raises questions about bandwidth and focus. Tesla went through a similar situation as competition caught up in the EV market, briefly losing its top delivery spot before clawing it back.

The same pattern could play out in space. Competitors are actively building their own reusable rockets and satellite networks. A first-mover advantage matters, but it’s not permanent.

At current levels, some analysts argue the valuation doesn’t reflect the financial reality yet. The IPO excitement may take time to settle before the stock finds a clearer floor.

SpaceX currently trades at $161.78, with a 52-week range of $147.11 to $225.64 and a market cap of approximately $2.1 trillion.