Spot Bitcoin ETFs end outflows as Polymarket prices 99.95% odds above $50K

Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit $221.7M, Lifting Polymarket “Bitcoin Above ___ on July 4?” Odds Toward Higher Strikes

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $221.7 million on Thursday, snapping a 10-day outflow streak, as traders watched whether renewed fund demand could support Bitcoin’s rebound. On Polymarket’s ladder market “Bitcoin above ___ on July 4?”, pricing continues to imply high odds that Bitcoin stays above lower strike levels into the July 4 resolution window.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket prices imply a 99.95% chance Bitcoin will be above $50,000 on July 4.
• Traders kept the ladder skewed to the upside as ETF flows flipped positive, while higher strikes remain heavily discounted.
• The contract resolves at 2026-07-04T16:00:00+00:00, with odds little changed over the past 24 hours.

U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $221.7 million of net inflows on Thursday, the biggest one-day intake in two months, ending a 10-day stretch of outflows, according to SoSoValue. Fidelity’s FBTC led with $165.96 million of inflows, followed by ARKB with $91.84 million and HODL with $4.35 million. BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest bitcoin ETF, was the exception, posting a $40.43 million outflow. The 10-day run of redemptions totaled $2.73 billion, leaving year-to-date net outflows at about $5.4 billion. The report said the inflow rebound helped validate Bitcoin’s move back to around $61,700 after it fell below $58,000 earlier in the week, though analysts said sustained inflows would be needed to confirm a lasting recovery.

Polymarket Ladder Sees $360,302 Volume as Bitcoin $50K Odds Sit at 99.95% and $62K Is Priced at 40%

Polymarket has logged $360,302 in volume on the “Bitcoin above ___ on July 4?” ladder, with pricing clustered at near-certainty for several lower strikes. The market shows $50,000 Yes 99.95% / No 0.05%, and the same 99.95% / 0.05% split at both $52,000 and $54,000, indicating traders see those downside levels as extremely unlikely to be breached by the July 4 close. Confidence drops at mid-range levels, with $60,000 Yes 94.5% / No 5.5% and $62,000 Yes 40% / No 60% implying a more balanced view around that threshold. Upside tails remain priced as long shots, including $64,000 Yes 3.05% / No 96.95% and $70,000 Yes 0.05% / No 99.95%.

Watch whether ETF flows remain positive after Thursday’s reversal and whether the ladder’s inflection point near the $62,000 strike shifts ahead of the 2026-07-04T16:00:00+00:00 resolution.

Beyond Bitcoin ETFs: Other High-Volume Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching Right Now

Beyond the July 4 ladder, traders have been concentrating liquidity in broader, time-boxed crypto range contracts that effectively map near-term and long-dated sentiment. “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?” has drawn $45,944,904 in volume, while “What price will Bitcoin hit in July?” sits at $1,302,181 and “What price will Bitcoin hit June 29-July 5?” at $917,465. Activity has also spilled into ether, with “What price will Ethereum hit in July?” seeing $682,596 as participants position across correlated moves.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Bitcoin above ___ on July 4?
• Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Resolution window: Jul 04, 2026 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Volume: ~$360,302

Top strike rungs

+7 more strikes not shown

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