Standard Chartered says Bitcoin could retest $126K before year-end

Bitcoin has climbed about 24% over the past week to around $76,844, prompting Standard Chartered to say its $100,000 year-end forecast may now be too low as the cryptocurrency moves closer to its $126,000 all-time high.

According to Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital asset research, the latest Bitcoin rally has been driven mainly by short liquidations, while recovering inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds could provide another source of demand if the advance continues.

Kendrick said in a Friday note shared with crypto media that low open interest across the market also leaves room for investors to rebuild positions as Bitcoin rises. A combination of forced buying from short sellers and returning ETF demand has helped BTC recover rapidly after spending much of the past two months around the $60,000 to $65,000 range.

“For the first time this year there is now a risk my end year forecast (of USD100k) is too low,” Kendrick wrote.

Bitcoin was trading at $76,844 at the time of the report, up roughly 24% over seven days, according to CoinGecko data. At that level, BTC remained about 39% below Standard Chartered’s $100,000 forecast and roughly 64% below the $126,000 record high.

Bitcoin could challenge $126,000 after Oct. 6

Kendrick said Bitcoin could move toward its previous record before the end of the year, with the recovery potentially accelerating after Oct. 6.

The date corresponds closely with Bitcoin’s 2025 market peak, after which the cryptocurrency entered an extended decline that continued into 2026. Kendrick’s latest view places particular focus on whether BTC can maintain its recovery once the market moves beyond the anniversary of that high.

Standard Chartered has not formally replaced its $100,000 year-end forecast with a $126,000 target. Kendrick instead described the all-time high as a level Bitcoin may revisit if the current recovery gathers momentum, while acknowledging that the bank’s existing forecast could prove conservative.

The position is stronger than the bank’s assessment during the June selloff. On June 4, crypto.news reported that Standard Chartered had retained its $100,000 Bitcoin target even after BTC fell more than 15% in a week and briefly moved toward $61,000.

At the time, Kendrick said some of the forces behind the decline were beginning to ease. He also expected Strategy to resume Bitcoin purchases and noted that liquidations during the selloff had remained below levels recorded during some previous market crashes.

Only nine days later, the bank kept the same forecast after Bitcoin fell toward $59,000 and recovered to roughly $63,500. Kendrick described the move toward $59,000 as the “likely low” of the cycle and tied the decline to forced selling, weak ETF flows and liquidity stress.

Bitcoin has since risen more than $17,000 above that June low.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have started to recover

ETF demand has become one of the components Kendrick is watching as Bitcoin moves higher.

The analyst said inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have started recovering after weak institutional demand contributed to pressure earlier in the year. Stronger ETF flows would provide buying demand that does not depend solely on traders being forced out of short positions.

ETF activity had already started improving during Bitcoin’s July recovery. On July 3, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows ended a 10-day negative streak after U.S.-listed funds recorded $221.7 million in net inflows on July 2, according to SoSoValue data cited by crypto.news at the time.

Bitcoin was trading near $61,700 during that recovery and had only recently moved back above the sub-$60,000 area.

By July 21, BTC had returned above $65,000 as spot ETF inflows extended to five consecutive sessions. Bitcoin was trading around $65,245 at the time, up about 5% over seven days, while $70,000 remained an important resistance level.

The latest rally has since carried Bitcoin well beyond both $65,000 and $70,000.

Open interest remains another part of Kendrick’s assessment. Lower open interest means fewer leveraged positions are currently active compared with periods when speculative exposure is heavily concentrated, leaving capacity for traders to rebuild positions if confidence returns.

Kendrick said the current combination of low positioning and higher prices could therefore pull investors back into the market rather than immediately creating the type of crowded leverage that can make a rally more vulnerable to liquidation cascades.

Standard Chartered cut its Bitcoin target in February

The bank’s current $100,000 forecast followed a major downgrade earlier this year.

In a Feb. 12 report, Kendrick cut Standard Chartered’s year-end Bitcoin target from $150,000 to $100,000 and lowered its Ether forecast from $7,500 to $4,000.

At the time, he expected Bitcoin could decline toward $50,000 before recovering during the remainder of the year, while Ether could fall as low as $1,400.

A February report on the downgrade said Standard Chartered cited ETF outflows, weaker macroeconomic conditions, reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and changes in investor positioning among the factors behind its lower forecasts.

Bitcoin did not ultimately reach Kendrick’s $50,000 downside estimate. Its sharpest decline instead took the cryptocurrency toward the upper-$50,000 range before buyers returned.

Even as volatility continued during July, Standard Chartered declined to reduce the forecast again. On July 10, the bank reaffirmed its $100,000 call while Bitcoin traded above $64,000.

Kendrick said investor concerns surrounding Strategy’s changing Bitcoin treasury approach had been responsible for part of the market pressure, while Standard Chartered did not view those developments as enough to alter its longer-term price expectation.

Bitcoin has cleared July’s main resistance zones

Bitcoin had repeatedly struggled around $65,000 during the early stages of the recovery.

On July 16, BTC failed to hold above $65,000 after briefly reaching about $65,470 following softer U.S. inflation data. Whale selling and profit-taking from longer-term holders capped the move, while liquidations accelerated after the cryptocurrency slipped below the $64,400 area.

Bitcoin subsequently returned toward the same resistance zone several times before eventually breaking above it.

A July 21 rally carried BTC as high as $66,965 before sellers stepped in near $67,000. ETF inflows, progress around U.S. crypto legislation and short liquidations contributed to the advance, while higher oil prices linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict limited the move.

Those July price levels now sit more than $10,000 below Bitcoin’s latest market price.

Other industry observers have also started looking for evidence that the 2026 bear market has run its course. Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten said Bitcoin could form a bottom in October, according to the report, while 10x Research founder Markus Thielen said an August close above $63,000 could confirm a bear-market bottom.

Bitcoin has already moved well above that threshold before the end of August, though Thielen’s condition specifically depends on where the cryptocurrency finishes the month.

During the July downturn, BTC repeatedly traded around the same $62,000 to $65,000 region. On July 17, Bitcoin fell below $63,000 as renewed U.S.-Iran military action weighed on risk assets, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs still recorded $79.15 million in net inflows during the previous session.

Kendrick’s latest assessment now places the bank’s focus above those former resistance levels, with Standard Chartered retaining its official $100,000 year-end forecast while its digital asset research head sees a possibility that Bitcoin could return to $126,000 before 2026 ends.