Strait of Hormuz closure raises concerns over global oil supply disruptions

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz after US-Israeli strikes on Iran has raised concerns over global oil supply disruptions. The market for WTI Crude Oil reaching $160 in April remains uncertain, with current odds unreported.

Traders are watching the crude oil all-time high by April 30 contract, which sits at 3.5% YES. This market has ticked up from 3% over the past 24 hours but is unchanged from a week ago. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a fifth of global oil transit, and its closure has fed expectations that prices could exceed the historical peak of $120/barrel.

Total USDC traded is just $2,006, and only $1,020 is needed to move the price 5 percentage points. The market is thin enough that a single large order could meaningfully shift the odds. Traders appear to be waiting for concrete developments before committing capital.

The Strait’s closure is a direct supply disruption to one of the world’s most concentrated oil transit routes. The low 3.5% odds reflect that while a record price is possible, traders still view it as unlikely within the April timeframe, particularly given the thin volume.

Watch for announcements from President Trump, OPEC+, or Iranian leadership. A prolonged closure or further military action could push odds higher. Signs of resumed negotiations or increased OPEC+ production would likely pull them back down.

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