Strategy (MSTR) Stock Surges 5% as STRC Preferred Shares Approach Par Value

Key Highlights

• MSTR shares surged 5.1% to $135.17 following softer-than-expected August CPI data that alleviated concerns over aggressive rate increases
• STRC preferred shares reached a 15-week peak at $98.64, marking a 38% recovery from June 26 lows and trading only $1.36 beneath par
• The company has bought back $811.5 million worth of STRC since July through proceeds from MSTR stock and Bitcoin liquidations
• Canaccord Genuity upgraded its MSTR target to $179 while maintaining a Buy recommendation
• Technical resistance emerged at the 200-day SMA of $138, with support identified at the $126 level

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Strategy (MSTR) shares posted a 5.1% advance on September 11, touching an intraday peak of $137 before settling at $130. The rally followed the release of August CPI figures, which revealed a 0.33% month-over-month increase in core inflation metrics, elevating Federal Reserve rate hike probabilities to 79% and triggering heightened volatility across cryptocurrency-related equities.

Strategy Inc, MSTR

Bitcoin hovered around the $77,000 mark ahead of the inflation report, facing headwinds from escalating oil prices and elevated Treasury yields. The slightly better-than-anticipated headline figure offered breathing room for risk-on assets, propelling MSTR significantly higher than broader market benchmarks. The S&P 500 advanced 0.9%, the Dow Jones climbed 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.1%.

The stock’s 52-week trading range spans from $81.81 to $365.21, leaving MSTR considerably distant from its prior highs.

STRC Preferred Shares Stage Strong Comeback

A significant catalyst behind the optimistic outlook for MSTR is the resurgence of its STRC preferred shares. STRC finished at $98.64 on September 11, marking its strongest close since June 1. This positions the security just $1.36 away from its $100 par value, representing a 38% rebound from the record bottom of $71 recorded on June 26.

Strategy has been systematically repurchasing STRC shares, allocating $176 million in its latest transaction and a cumulative $811.5 million since initiating the buyback initiative in July. The firm is financing these acquisitions through strategic sales of MSTR equity and Bitcoin holdings.

An analyst on X articulated the bullish thesis: should STRC recover to or exceed par value, Strategy unlocks access to an expanded preferred equity capital-raising framework. This would enable the company to secure additional funding for Bitcoin accumulation, potentially amplifying MSTR’s market-to-NAV multiple.

Wall Street’s Perspective

The analyst calculated MSTR’s present mNAV at 1.11x and suggested that an expansion to 1.5x mNAV, which he views as a modest assumption, would position the stock around $185 based on existing NAV metrics. This projection excludes the impact of incremental Bitcoin acquisitions that a fully operational STRC capital mechanism could facilitate.

Canaccord Genuity independently increased its MSTR price objective from $175 to $179, expressing confidence in a Bitcoin price recovery. The firm reaffirmed its Buy rating.

Regarding balance sheet developments, Strategy disclosed on September 8 that it expanded its digital credit securities repurchase authorization to $2 billion. The company also confirmed a $5.1 billion USD reserve alongside $1 billion in MSTR stock repurchase capacity.

Strategy’s unrealized gains on its Bitcoin portfolio have contracted to $1.3 billion amid the recent BTC price pullback.

From a technical perspective, MSTR encountered resistance at its 200-day SMA of $138 on September 11 but couldn’t establish a closing position above this threshold. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator registered 0.17, suggesting buying momentum continues to dominate selling pressure. Should buying interest weaken, the 100-day SMA at $126 represents the next support zone. A closing breach below $130 could expose the August 21 low of $117.

Other cryptocurrency-related equities posted moderate gains. Coinbase (COIN) increased 1.73% while Circle (CRCL) advanced 0.31% during the session.

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