Supreme Court Cook ruling lifts Polymarket July Fed hold odds to 80.5%

Fed Hold in July 2026: Polymarket “No Change” Odds Jump After Jefferies Inflation Call and Lisa Cook Supreme Court Rulin

A Jefferies strategist said inflation is expected to ease in the second half of 2026, as a separate discussion highlighted a Supreme Court ruling involving Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. On Polymarket’s “Fed Decision in July?” ladder, traders lifted the implied odds of “No change” to 80.5% from 71.5%.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket prices a 80.5% chance the Federal Reserve makes no change after the July 2026 meeting.
• The move followed fresh commentary pointing to lower inflation in the back half of 2026, alongside focus on a Supreme Court ruling tied to Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
• The contract resolves on 2026-07-29, with “No change” up 9.0 percentage points versus the prior reading.

A segment featuring Jefferies strategist David Zervos said inflation is expected to move lower in the second half of 2026, in a discussion about what could come next for the U.S. economy. The program also covered a Supreme Court ruling that President Trump cannot fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Separately, panelists discussed how the court’s decision could affect the balance of power between Congress and the president in shaping the economy. The segment included reaction from Trump calling a related Supreme Court decision backing the firing of an FTC member a “big win.” The conversation was presented as part of a broader market and macro update.

Polymarket Fed Decision Ladder: “No Change” at 80.5% on $25.79M Volume as Hike and Cut Tails Stay Thin

Polymarket’s “Fed Decision in July?” ladder shows the market centered on a hold: “No change” is priced at 80.5% Yes versus 19.5% No, a 9.0-point jump from 71.5%. A 25 bps increase sits at 17.55% Yes / 82.45% No, while a 25 bps decrease is 1.45% Yes / 98.55% No. The tails are thin, with 50+ bps decrease at 0.8% Yes / 99.2% No and 50+ bps increase at 0.45% Yes / 99.55% No. Total volume is $25,790,015, indicating the repricing was absorbed with substantial liquidity while keeping the distribution heavily skewed toward no move.

The market resolves on 2026-07-29; traders will keep mapping incoming macro signals into the ladder’s split between “No change” and the 25 bps hike line.

Macro Watchlist on Polymarket: Other High-Interest U.S. Inflation, Supreme Court, and Policy Power-Shift Contracts Trade

Beyond the July meeting pricing, traders are also clustering around longer-horizon macro and power-dynamics bets on Polymarket, with 77.85% on “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?” favoring “0 (0 bps)” on $39,762,557 in volume. On the political side, “Which party will win the House in 2026?” is leaning 82.5% toward the “Democratic Party,” with $7,999,729 traded, as participants weigh how Washington’s balance of power could shape the policy backdrop.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Fed Decision in July?
• Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Resolution window: Jul 29, 2026 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Volume: ~$25,790,015

Top strike rungs

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