Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Stock: Can TSMC Make It Five Record Quarters in a Row?

TLDR

• TSMC is expected to report a 59% surge in Q2 net profit to T$632.6 billion (~$19.65 billion) on Thursday
• Q2 revenue already posted a 36% year-on-year rise, beating market forecasts
• Analysts expect TSMC to raise its full-year revenue growth outlook above the current “above 30%” guidance
• Capital expenditure could be raised to ~$58 billion, up from the $52–$56 billion range
• TSM stock has gained 56% year-to-date; consensus analyst rating is “Buy” with a price target of $449.38

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TSMC is heading into Thursday’s earnings report with the wind at its back. The world’s largest advanced chip manufacturer is expected to post a 59% jump in Q2 net profit to T$632.6 billion, or roughly $19.65 billion, according to an LSEG SmartEstimate based on 18 analysts.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, TSM

TSM opened at $421.43 on Tuesday, off its 52-week high of $479.00, with the stock up 56% year-to-date.

If the profit figure clears T$572.5 billion, it would mark a new all-time quarterly high for the company — and its 10th straight quarter of profit growth.

TSMC already gave investors a preview of what’s coming. On Monday, the company reported a 36% year-on-year rise in Q2 revenue, beating market forecasts and setting a new record. June revenue alone jumped 67.9% year-over-year.

Demand for TSMC’s 3-nanometre and 2-nanometre process technologies, along with its CoWoS advanced chip packaging, is driving the results. Key customers Nvidia and Apple continue to pull heavily from TSMC’s production lines.

“TSMC’s strong second-quarter revenue shows AI demand remains healthy, driving demand for its advanced chip production and CoWoS packaging,” said Dan Nystedt, research analyst at TriOrient.

Full-Year Guidance in Focus

Beyond the headline profit number, investors are watching closely for any update to full-year revenue guidance. TSMC currently guides for “above 30%” growth year-on-year. Bank of America’s Asia semiconductor analyst Haas Liu says supply chain checks point to a potential upgrade.

Capital expenditure plans are also on the radar. On its April earnings call, TSMC said 2026 capex would land at the high end of a $52–$56 billion range. Liu now forecasts capex could be raised to around $58 billion, citing tight equipment supply and capacity expansion by memory makers including Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix.

Not everyone expects a capex hike. TriOrient’s Nystedt thinks TSMC will hold its current guidance range.

TSMC’s market cap now sits at approximately $2.19 trillion — nearly double that of Samsung Electronics at around $1.97 trillion.

Analysts Back the Stock

Analyst sentiment remains firmly positive. Bank of America raised its price target from $490 to $590 in late June, while Susquehanna lifted its target from $500 to $575 around the same time. Needham bumped its target to $480 back in April.

Citigroup reiterated a “Buy” rating on July 6. The consensus rating across 16 analysts sits at “Buy,” with an average price target of $449.38. Two analysts carry a “Strong Buy.”

TSMC also recently raised its quarterly dividend to $1.1136 per share, up from $0.95, payable October 8 to shareholders of record September 16.

Institutional interest continues to build. Bleakley Financial Group raised its TSM stake by 15.1% in Q1, bringing its total holding to 68,969 units worth around $23.3 million.

TSMC’s earnings call is scheduled for 0600 GMT Thursday, where third-quarter guidance and any full-year revisions will be front and center.