Tehran condemns US seizure of Iranian oil tankers as piracy

Tehran called Washington’s seizure of Iranian oil tankers “outright piracy.” The market for Iran successfully targeting ships by April 30 sits at 80% YES, up from 19% just 24 hours ago.

## Market reaction

The ship-targeting market spiked 61 percentage points in a single day. Daily volume is $1,280 in USDC, and it takes only $101 to move the odds by 5 percentage points. This is a thinly traded market, vulnerable to sharp swings on any new development.

The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market (resolving end of June) has recorded no trades. Trader interest in a return to pre-crisis shipping levels appears to have dried up as the diplomatic situation worsens.

## Why it matters

Disruptions to Iranian oil exports feed directly into crude price expectations. The likelihood of crude hitting $90 by end of June could rise if tanker seizures continue or if Iran retaliates against commercial shipping. Any movement in US-Iran negotiations or military posture would ripple into that market as well.

## What to watch

– Statements from Iranian military leadership about retaliatory actions – Changes in US naval deployments near the Strait of Hormuz – Any resumption of US-Iran diplomatic channels – Trade activity in the Hormuz normalization market, which has been completely dead

## API CTA

Buying YES at 80¢ pays out if Iran targets ships by April 30, but the thin liquidity means prices can move fast against you.

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