TLDR
- Analysts warn a Tesla-SpaceX merger could take two to three years and faces major regulatory hurdles
- GLJ Research’s Gordon Johnson sees $40–$50 downside risk to TSLA as merger hype fades
- Midterm elections pose a risk, with Democrats over 80% likely to retake the House per Kalshi
- Tesla trades at ~173x forward earnings, with valuation tied to robo-taxi and humanoid robot progress
- Institutional ownership sits at 66.20%; Q2 earnings are due July 22 with EPS expected around $1.30 for the full year
Tesla (TSLA) stock was trading at $384.82 in premarket Friday, down 1.6% on the day, and is off 13% year-to-date heading into the weekend.
The stock opened at $391.06 and has a 52-week range of $297.82 to $498.83. Its market cap sits at $1.47 trillion.
Two risks are getting more attention this week: fading merger speculation and the upcoming midterm elections.
The Tesla-SpaceX merger idea has been circulating on Wall Street for a while. The thinking goes that combining Tesla’s hardware and AI with SpaceX’s capabilities creates a powerhouse for the next century.
But Future Fund Active ETF co-founder Gary Black pushed back on that timeline Thursday. He said those expecting SpaceX to buy Tesla “don’t understand the concept of board fiduciary duty.” Musk may control over 80% of SpaceX’s voting power, but the board still has legal obligations to all shareholders.
GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson goes further. He says any deal would need government approval from multiple countries, including China, and could take two to three years to complete.
Johnson puts $40 to $50 of downside risk on TSLA stock as merger optimism fades. His price target is below $30, and he rates the stock Sell.
Midterm Risk Creeping In
The political angle is also worth watching. Prediction market Kalshi puts the odds of Democrats retaking the House above 80%. Johnson believes that outcome could lead to investigations into Musk, creating noise around Tesla’s story.
The average analyst price target is $408.07, per FactSet, with a consensus Hold rating. Twenty-one analysts rate it Buy, twenty-one Hold, and four Sell.
Tesla currently trades at around 173 times forward earnings. That valuation is almost entirely dependent on execution in AI, robo-taxis, and humanoid robots.
Eyes on July 22 Earnings
Tesla’s robo-taxi service launched in Austin in June 2025, when the stock was around $322. Expansion has been slow since then.
The Optimus humanoid robot is still in development, and investors are still waiting for a clear timeline on when it could contribute meaningfully to revenue.
Q2 earnings are due July 22. Elon Musk is expected to address robo-taxi progress, Cybercab, and Optimus. Those updates could move the stock.
On the institutional side, Independent Financial Group LLC opened a new position in Q1, buying 65,501 shares worth $24.35 million. Institutional ownership overall stands at 66.20%.
Insiders have been selling. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares at $402.20 on June 8, and Director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson sold 26,409 shares at $378.11 on April 30. Total insider sales over the past 90 days: 32,015 shares worth $12.38 million.
Tesla’s last earnings report showed EPS of $0.41, beating estimates of $0.39. Revenue came in at $22.39 billion, below the $22.96 billion consensus. Revenue was up 15.8% year over year.
Analysts forecast full-year EPS of $1.30 for fiscal 2026.
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