Tesla (TSLA) Stock Shrugs Off Delivery Fears – Here’s What the Market Is Watching Instead

TLDR

• Tesla stock was up 1.2% at $362.21 early Thursday, continuing gains from Wednesday
• Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney expects Q3 deliveries of ~435,000 vehicles, below the 456,000 consensus
• Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares at $360.13 to cover tax obligations on vested equity awards
• Institutional investors own 66.2% of TSLA; consensus analyst rating is “Hold” with a $412.25 price target
• Upcoming catalysts include a Vietnam expansion, October 1 Roadster reveal, and Samsung’s trial production of Tesla’s AI5 chip

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Tesla stock edged up 1.2% to $362.21 early Thursday, even as Goldman Sachs flagged potential weakness in third-quarter EV delivery numbers.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

Goldman analyst Mark Delaney estimates Tesla will deliver around 435,000 vehicles in Q3, short of the Wall Street consensus of 456,000. He rates the stock Hold with a price target of $360.

The caution follows a rough stretch for Tesla this year. The stock was down about 20% year-to-date heading into Thursday’s session, and down 16% over the past 12 months.

Tesla delivered nearly 500,000 vehicles in Q3 2025, a number partly lifted by the September 2025 expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit. Deliveries then dropped to 418,000 units in Q4.

For full-year 2026, analysts expect Tesla to deliver around 1.8 million vehicles, up from roughly 1.6 million in 2025. That would reverse two straight years of declining deliveries.

Still, EV delivery expectations have dropped sharply from their peak. Back in March 2022, estimates had Tesla delivering as many as 4.9 million vehicles in 2026.

The market seems to have moved on from obsessing over delivery counts. Investors are now more focused on Tesla’s AI-related businesses, including robotaxis and humanoid robots.

Institutional and Insider Activity

On the institutional side, Pinnacle Wealth Management raised its Tesla position by 9.5% in Q2, bringing its holding to 17,256 shares valued at about $7.26 million.

Other firms also added to positions. NewEdge Advisors increased its stake by 4.6% to 409,932 shares. GFG Capital raised its holding by 20.3%. Institutional investors collectively own 66.2% of Tesla.

On the insider side, CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares on September 8 at an average of $360.13, generating roughly $938,499. The sale was to cover tax withholding on vested equity awards, not a discretionary trade. Corporate insiders own about 19.9% of the company.

Analyst sentiment across the board remains mixed. Of the analysts tracked by MarketBeat, 21 have Buy ratings, 19 have Hold ratings, and 5 have Sell ratings. The consensus target sits at $412.25.

Upcoming Catalysts

Tesla is building momentum around several near-term events. The company recently registered a sales subsidiary in Vietnam, marking entry into a fast-growing EV market currently dominated by VinFast.

CEO Elon Musk has flagged the October 1 Roadster reveal as a major event, saying the demonstration will exceed expectations.

Samsung has started trial production of Tesla’s AI5 processor under a reported $16.5 billion foundry agreement, a development that could bolster Tesla’s AI computing capabilities.

In its most recent quarterly results, released July 23, Tesla reported revenue of $28.24 billion, beating the $26.42 billion consensus. EPS came in at $0.33, below the $0.50 estimate. Revenue was up 25.5% year-over-year.

Tesla’s one-year trading range sits between $297.38 and $498.83, with a current market cap of approximately $1.41 trillion.