TLDR
- The Clarity Act passed the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 but now faces a tough path to a full Senate vote
- Polymarket odds of passage by end of 2026 have dropped from 70% to 48%
- Lawmakers have roughly 20 legislative days before August recess to advance the bill
- If passed, the bill would expand institutional crypto services including tokenization, staking, and ETFs
- Delays could slow blockchain investment and weigh on crypto-linked stocks like Coinbase and Circle
Investment bank Jefferies is warning that the path through the Senate for the Clarity Act is getting harder. The bill passed the Senate Banking Committee with a bipartisan 15-9 vote earlier this year. But Jefferies says tougher hurdles lie ahead.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Crypto Clarity Act no longer projected to be signed into law this year. pic.twitter.com/QhzIFCnwVS
— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) June 30, 2026
The Clarity Act is seen as the crypto industry’s most important market structure bill. It would establish clear rules for when digital assets are regulated as securities by the SEC or as commodities by the CFTC. Right now, that line is unclear, and it has created years of legal uncertainty for crypto companies.
Prediction market Polymarket now puts the odds of the bill passing by end of 2026 at 48%. That’s down sharply from 70% in mid-May. The drop is driven by concerns over ethics provisions, anti-money-laundering rules, and a tight Senate schedule.
Lawmakers have around 20 legislative days before the August recess. In that time, they need to merge competing Senate versions of the bill, clear procedural votes, reconcile it with the House version, and get it to President Trump’s desk.
Jefferies analysts warned that if the bill doesn’t advance before August recess, it could slip to next year — or later, if Democrats flip the Senate in November’s midterm elections.
What Passage Would Mean for Crypto Markets
If the Clarity Act becomes law, Jefferies says it would give banks, asset managers, and crypto exchanges the legal framework they need to expand services. That includes tokenized securities, crypto custody, staking, and lending.
The bank also expects passage to broaden crypto ETF offerings beyond Bitcoin and Ether, and to revive the pipeline for crypto infrastructure IPOs.
Companies like Coinbase, Circle, and Bullish — which owns CoinDesk — would likely benefit. But the bill’s legislative journey is expected to cause stock volatility for all three in the meantime.
For Circle specifically, the bill has mixed implications. One provision would close a loophole that allows third parties like Coinbase to offer rewards on USDC holdings. That could slow USDC growth. On the other hand, a delay would give Circle more time to build out its payments network.
Jefferies added that Circle’s biggest long-term risk isn’t regulation — it’s competition. Banks, fintechs, and payments companies are launching their own stablecoins with larger distribution networks.
What a Delay Would Mean
If the bill stalls, Jefferies says regulatory uncertainty would continue. Recent guidance from the SEC, CFTC, and OCC has helped, but agency rules can be reversed by future administrations. That risk could prompt financial institutions to slow or pause their blockchain plans.
JPMorgan also flagged the narrow window for passage this month, pointing to the tightening congressional calendar and the unresolved debate over stablecoin yield.
The bill’s fate over the next few weeks will be a key factor for crypto market direction heading into the second half of 2026.
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