BANDAR ABBAS, IRAN – SEPTEMBER 12: Daily life continues in the strategic port city of Bandar Abbas on the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing tensions between Iran and the United States, as Iranians spend time along the cityâs waterfront at sunset in Bandar Abbas, Iran on September 12, 2026. (Photo by Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Anadolu via Getty Images
For decades, the biggest geopolitical risk hanging over the oil market has been the Strait of Hormuz. Before the conflict in Iran began in late February, roughly one-fifth of the world’s petroleum liquids moved through the narrow waterway separating Iran from Oman, making it the most important oil chokepoint in the world. Now that traffic through Hormuz has been severely disrupted, Gulf producers have increasingly relied on the limited alternatives available to keep oil moving. For Saudi Arabia, the most important of those alternatives is the East-West Pipeline, which carries crude across the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea.
Now that escape route is under attack as well. Drone strikes forced Saudi Arabia to shut the pipeline after it had been moving roughly 4 million barrels per day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, equivalent to about 4% of global oil supply. Reuters reports that available inventories at Yanbu may be sufficient to maintain recent exports for only five to seven days if pipeline operations do not resume. Repair estimates vary considerably, with one industry source suggesting a full restoration could take five to six weeks, although partial operations might resume sooner.
The problem does not end at Yanbu. Iran-aligned Houthi forces have advanced along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and reached Perim Island, which sits in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea. The latest Houthi advance puts them in a stronger position to threaten another of the world’s critical energy corridors at exactly the time Saudi Arabia is relying more heavily on Red Sea exports. The primary route around Hormuz now leads toward a second chokepoint facing its own escalating security risk.
The Importance of the East-West Pipeline
Under normal conditions, the Strait of Hormuz carries an extraordinary concentration of global energy trade. EIA data show that oil flows through Hormuz averaged 20.9 million barrels per day during the first half of 2025, equivalent to about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pipelines capable of bypassing the strait, but EIA estimates that together they could provide only about 4.7 million barrels per day of bypass capacity. That is substantial, but still only a fraction of normal Hormuz traffic.
Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline is the most important of those alternatives. It carries crude from the kingdom’s eastern producing region across the Arabian Peninsula to Yanbu, allowing Saudi oil to reach the Red Sea without passing through Hormuz. Under ordinary circumstances, that redundancy provides insurance against disruptions in the Persian Gulf. During the current conflict, however, the pipeline has become a major artery for maintaining exports while the normal route remains severely constrained.
ISTANBUL, TURKIYE – MARCH 28: An infographic titled ‘Saudi Arabiaâs Yanbu Port’ created in Istanbul, Turkiye, on March 28, 2026. Saudi Arabia, the worldâs largest oil exporter, is trying to benefit from alternative export routes via Yanbu. (Photo by Omar Zaghloul/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Anadolu via Getty Images
The shift is visible in the transportation data. The latest EIA figures show that oil flows through Hormuz fell from 21.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 to just 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026. Over the same period, flows through Bab el-Mandeb increased from 5.4 million to 8.1 million barrels per day. The global oil transportation system has already been significantly rerouted in response to the conflict.
That makes an attack on the East-West Pipeline more consequential than it would be under normal conditions. Backup infrastructure becomes most valuable when the primary route fails, and that is precisely when this pipeline has been hit. Earlier this year, I wrote in Forbes that Iran’s most powerful strategic weapon was not necessarily a nuclear bomb, but the geography it controls around the Strait of Hormuz. The latest attack extends that lesson beyond Hormuz itself, because infrastructure built to reduce dependence on one chokepoint can create new vulnerabilities elsewhere.
Storage Can Only Buy Time
Saudi Arabia maintains substantial crude inventories at Yanbu, so the pipeline shutdown does not immediately halt exports from the port. But storage can replace pipeline flows only temporarily. Current inventories at Yanbu are estimated to be sufficient for about five to seven days at recent export rates, while additional Saudi crude stored at Egyptian ports provides another limited buffer. If repairs take weeks rather than days, those inventories will eventually become a constraint.
Saudi production has already fallen sharply during the conflict. The kingdom told OPEC that output dropped to 6.2 million barrels per day in August from 10.9 million barrels per day in February. If the pipeline remains offline for an extended period, Saudi Arabia could face additional difficulty maintaining exports even though it still possesses enormous oil reserves. Having oil underground is not the same thing as being able to deliver it when pipelines, ports and shipping routes are impaired.
Another Chokepoint At The Other End
Even getting crude to Yanbu solves only part of the problem. Tankers leaving the Red Sea still have to reach their customers, and cargoes headed toward Asia generally pass through Bab el-Mandeb between Yemen and the Horn of Africa. Roughly 7% of global petroleum supplies pass through the strait, and the Houthis have already demonstrated an ability to disrupt commercial shipping in the region. Their latest advances increase the risk around a route Saudi Arabia now needs more than ever.
This does not mean Bab el-Mandeb will necessarily be closed. Shipping does not have to stop completely to impose significant economic costs, because higher insurance rates, vessel diversions and longer routes around Africa consume both time and tanker capacity. The strategic problem is that Iran has demonstrated its ability to disrupt the primary export route through Hormuz on the eastern side of the Arabian Peninsula, while Iran-aligned forces can threaten shipping near Bab el-Mandeb on the western side. Between those two chokepoints lies the pipeline intended to give Saudi Arabia an alternative when Hormuz becomes unreliable.
What It Means For Oil Prices
Oil markets are already reflecting the increased strain. Brent crude settled Friday at $104.61 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate finished at $100.05. Both benchmarks gained more than 8% for the week despite falling Friday after reports of possible diplomatic talks over shipping through Hormuz. Friday’s oil-market report showed how quickly prices have responded as attacks spread beyond the original Gulf shipping routes.
There are still forces preventing an even larger price spike. High energy prices can weaken demand, production outside the Persian Gulf provides an important buffer, and inventories have helped compensate for disrupted supply. But those cushions are finite, and every additional infrastructure problem leaves the market with fewer alternatives if something else goes wrong. That is why the East-West Pipeline repair timeline matters so much.
If Saudi Arabia restores substantial capacity quickly, the shutdown may ultimately become another temporary shock in an exceptionally volatile year. If repairs stretch into several weeks while pressure around Bab el-Mandeb continues to build, another meaningful portion of the oil still reaching global customers could come under threat. The market is effectively discovering how much redundancy remains after both the primary route and its most important alternative are placed under pressure.
The Bigger Picture
For decades, discussions about Middle East energy security centered on what would happen if Iran closed or seriously disrupted the Strait of Hormuz. Producers responded by building pipelines, storage facilities and alternative export routes, and those investments have helped soften the effects of the current crisis. But bypass infrastructure does not eliminate geopolitical risk. It moves energy through a different collection of pipelines, ports and shipping lanes, each with vulnerabilities of its own.
That is the broader lesson from the latest attacks. Energy security depends not simply on possessing oil, but on having enough redundancy to produce, transport and deliver it when part of the system fails. The oil market has already learned how vulnerable the Strait of Hormuz can be. It is now discovering that the escape route around Hormuz has vulnerabilities of its own.
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