Thinking Machines Lab inks multibillion-dollar AI deal with Google Cloud, Nvidia chips

Thinking Machines Lab signed a deal with Google Cloud to access AI infrastructure powered by Nvidia’s new GB300 chips. The Polymarket contract on Nvidia being the largest company by market cap on June 30 sits at 90.5% YES.

Market reaction

The market for Nvidia to be the largest company by market cap on June 30 holds at 90.5% YES, unchanged over the past week. The deal adds another major cloud provider locking in Nvidia’s latest hardware, reinforcing demand for its AI compute products during the U.S.-China tech rivalry.

Why it matters

Daily trading volume in this market is $9,609 USDC, and it takes $48,666 to move the odds by 5 points. That order book depth suggests real conviction behind the price. The separate market for Nvidia holding the top spot by December 31 is at just 0.8% YES, so trader attention is concentrated on the June 30 deadline.

What to watch

At 90.5% YES, the implied confidence is high and the payout is thin. A contrarian NO position would require something like regulatory action or a competitive hardware breakthrough to pay off. Nvidia’s upcoming earnings reports and any moves from Apple or Amazon on competing AI infrastructure could shift expectations quickly.

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