Treasury yields rise amid US-Iran standoff; traders eye April PMI data

Treasury yields edged higher as the U.S.-Iran standoff continues, with traders eyeing April PMI data. Trump’s Iranian oil sanction relief by April is at 16% YES, down from 26% yesterday.

Market reaction

The Trump oil sanction relief market dropped 10 points in the last 24 hours, with the largest single move being a 5-point drop at 3:22 PM. USDC volume in the market totaled $7,257 over that period, and the market’s depth shows just $416 needed to move the price by 5 points — a thin book where a few large trades can swing odds sharply.

Why it matters

In the Fed Decisions market, the probability of a cut-pause-pause sequence in the next three Fed meetings may decrease as geopolitical tensions feed inflation fears. Oil prices are likely to stay elevated due to the Hormuz blockade risk, which pushes traders to reconsider expectations of a dovish Fed stance.

The Bitcoin price predictions market is also moving on these developments. The likelihood of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April could increase as investors rotate toward safe havens.

What to watch

At 16¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump agrees to sanction relief by April, a 6.25x return. Buying YES here requires confidence in an unexpected diplomatic shift. The FOMC meeting on April 28-29 and any statements from Jerome Powell or Donald Trump could move expectations across these markets.

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