Trump claims Iran talks progressing, vows no nuclear weapon

Trump says negotiations with Iran are advancing and that Iran will “never have a nuclear weapon.” The market for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 is at 44.5% YES, up from 35% yesterday.

Market reaction

Traders are responding to Trump’s optimistic tone, with the April 30 market gaining traction. The deadline is 14 days away. The permanent peace deal by April 22 market is at 30.5% YES, showing skepticism about a comprehensive agreement on that timeline.

Why it matters

The peace deal term structure shows a steep climb between April and May, with May 31 odds at 64.5% YES. That 21-point jump from April to May means traders expect something to break in mid-May. Volume on the peace deal market is $711,138 in actual USDC traded daily.

What to watch

The uranium enrichment market is thin at $23,824 in actual USDC traded daily, and it takes just $599 to shift prices by 5 points. That low depth makes it vulnerable to sudden moves. A YES share at 39¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 2.56x return. For that bet to pay off, a deal would need to materialize within two weeks.

Trump’s optimism may not account for Iran’s insistence on retaining limited enrichment rights. Statements from Ali Khamenei or IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi are more likely to produce real price movement than White House rhetoric. Any official confirmation from Tehran or the IAEA could move odds sharply.

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