Trump discusses new Iran proposal with national security aides

Trump met with national security aides to discuss a new Iran proposal. The odds of a U.S. invasion of Iran by December 31, 2026, sit at ? YES, while the likelihood of a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026, is at 31.9% YES, up from 16% yesterday.

Market reaction

The June 30 diplomatic meeting market jumped 15 points over the past 24 hours as traders priced in a higher probability of talks. The U.S. invasion of Iran market ticked down slightly, consistent with diplomacy reducing the perceived risk of military action.

Why it matters

The meeting with national security aides points toward engagement rather than escalation, though the existing blockade and naval standoff still carry risk. The diplomatic meeting market has $3,252 in actual USDC volume, with a 3-point drop recorded at 5:33 PM yesterday, suggesting active repositioning around the news.

What to watch

Buying YES on a diplomatic meeting by June 30 at 32¢ offers a potential 3.13x return if talks are confirmed. That bet depends on continued engagement and any public announcement of scheduled meetings. Watch for official statements from Oman or the IAEA. A confirmation of talks in Geneva or Oman would move the market sharply.

API CTA

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.