Trump signals no imminent end to Hormuz blockade amid ongoing talks

Trump’s comments on Iran suggest no imminent end to the Hormuz blockade. Odds of lifting the blockade by May 31 remain at 76.5% YES.

Trump has hinted at ongoing negotiations while rejecting Iranian leverage, and traders are skeptical of a quick resolution. The market for a lifting by April 19 sits at 10.5% YES, with a modest increase over the last two days. The April 17 market is effectively flat at 8% YES with just one day remaining. The spread between April 19 and May 31 suggests traders don’t see a catalyst until late May.

USDC volume is $33,928 over the last 24 hours, with notable liquidity in the near-term sub-markets. The April 19 position needs only $227 to move 5 points, making it vulnerable to large orders. The largest move was a 6-point drop yesterday evening.

Trump’s statements are noise without a concrete shift in naval or diplomatic posture. The odds of a permanent peace deal by April 22 remain low at 24.5% YES. At 15¢, a YES share pays $1 if resolved, but that requires believing in a rapid diplomatic breakthrough within six days.

Watch Trump’s late-day communications, Pentagon briefings, or any unexpected Iranian moves. A Trump end-of-day announcement could either surprise traders or confirm the status quo.

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