Trump warns US-Iran ceasefire may end if no deal by Wednesday

Donald Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire might not be extended beyond Wednesday if a long-term agreement isn’t reached. The odds of Trump announcing the end of the ceasefire by April 21 sit at 8% YES, down from 30% a week ago.

The April 21 ceasefire end market prices the odds at 8%. The ceasefire broken announcement market trades at 9% YES, suggesting traders doubt the ceasefire collapses this week.

The ceasefire extension market sits at 77.5% YES. Even after Trump’s comments, traders still price in a high probability of extension, though the statement has introduced some uncertainty.

The ceasefire extension market has $89,960 in daily USDC volume. It takes $10,909 to move the price 5 points, which points to institutional-level participation. The ceasefire end market is much thinner: $1,700 moves it 5 points, consistent with more speculative positioning.

Trump’s comments signal possible escalation, but the market remains skeptical. A YES bet on ceasefire end by April 21 pays 12.5x if Trump announces the end. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe no diplomatic progress will occur in the next five days.

Watch for Trump’s upcoming news conference and any military movements in the Strait of Hormuz. Either could shift these markets quickly.

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