Trump warns US-Iran ceasefire may end, raising conflict risk

Trump hinted at more updates on Iran and warned the US-Iran ceasefire may not be extended past its Wednesday expiration. The market for ceasefire extension by April 21 sits at 64.5% YES, down from 86% yesterday.

The April 21 extension odds dropped over 20 points in a single day to 64.5% YES, with only 3 days remaining before expiration. The ceasefire end market surged to 20.5% YES, up from 6% a day ago, as traders price in a growing likelihood of escalation if no extension is agreed upon.

The ceasefire broken announcement market also climbed to 21.5% YES following Trump’s comments. Combined 24-hour volume across the ceasefire markets hit $82,767 in USDC, with a cost of just $9,463 to shift prices 5 points.

Trump’s warning raises the prospect of renewed conflict affecting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. For traders considering contrarian positions, the extension market at 66.5¢ implies a 1.55x return if extended. That bet requires a breakthrough in negotiations within three days.

Watch Trump’s upcoming news conference for definitive language on the ceasefire. Public statements from CENTCOM or Iranian officials could move prices further. Shehbaz Sharif’s diplomatic engagements may also signal whether mediation efforts are gaining traction or stalling.

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