Trump’s Iran deal claims falter as Islamabad talks collapse

Trump claims a new Iran deal will surpass previous efforts, yet negotiations in Islamabad ended without agreement. The odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April are at 43.0% YES, up from 36% a day ago.

The Islamabad negotiations, aimed at securing a revised nuclear deal, broke down after Iran rejected US terms. Traders expect a 15% decrease in odds for Trump agreeing to Iranian demands. The market for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 has also dropped, with odds at 18.5% YES, down from 16% yesterday.

Peace deal odds vary by date. The April 30 market is at 39.5% YES, while the June 30 market is at 69.5% YES. The biggest jump is between April 30 and May 31, meaning traders expect something to break in that window.

Volume is at $16,425 in USDC traded across relevant markets. It takes just $387 to move the price 5 percentage points in the oil sanction relief market, which makes it vulnerable to large orders. The largest move in the past 24 hours was a 10-point spike at 2:39 PM that briefly pushed expectations higher.

The collapse in talks is a real setback. Iran has not moved from its position, and a quick resolution looks unlikely. At 43¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump agrees to oil sanction relief, a potential 2.33x return. That bet requires believing a diplomatic breakthrough could still happen this month.

Watch for intermediary activity, especially from Oman or European diplomats, which could signal renewed negotiations. Trump’s next statement on Truth Social may also move markets depending on tone and content.

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