TUI Stock Drops 2% as Late Bookings and Fuel Costs Bite

TLDR

• TUI narrowed its 2026 underlying EBIT outlook to €1.2bn-€1.3bn, from a prior range of €1.1bn-€1.4bn
• Stock fell around 1.93% on Tuesday morning, underperforming the DAX
• Revenue guidance remains suspended due to Middle East conflict uncertainty
• Customers are booking later, with jet fuel costs rising due to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran
• Booked capacity in Germany and the UK is up 1% since the August 12 update

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TUI stock slipped 1.93% on Tuesday morning after the travel group narrowed its annual profit outlook, pointing to later booking trends driven by ongoing Middle East tensions.

TUI AG, TUIFF

The Germany-listed travel group now expects 2026 underlying earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) of €1.2 billion to €1.3 billion ($1.38bn-$1.49bn) at constant currency. That compares to a previously wider range of €1.1 billion to €1.4 billion.

While the new range is tighter, it raises the floor of what TUI expects to earn this year.

TUI first cut its profit forecast and suspended revenue guidance back in March, after the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran broke out at the end of February. Revenue guidance remains suspended.

The conflict has pushed jet fuel prices higher, adding cost pressure that airlines have struggled to pass on to customers.

Customers have also grown more cautious about making travel plans, leading to a shift toward later bookings. TUI said this pattern is continuing into its winter 2026/27 season.

Despite the booking shift, TUI said demand into the fourth quarter remains strong. The company has been actively managing capacity to retain flexibility as customer behaviour shifts.

Bookings and Demand Trends

Booked capacity across TUI’s core markets of Germany and the UK rose 1% since the company’s last update on August 12. However, overall reservations across segments are down compared to the same period last year.

Analysts noted an uptick in forward bookings in recent weeks, which may have helped TUI narrow its guidance rather than cut it further.

Average selling prices are holding up well in the airline segment, TUI said, which is a positive sign for revenue quality even if volumes are softer.

Holiday Experiences Holds Up

TUI’s Holiday Experiences division, which covers hotels and cruises, has made a strong start to the first half of fiscal 2027. The company credited its asset-right growth strategy and the continued expansion of its hotel and cruise portfolio.

Demand in that segment is coming in at higher rates, providing some cushion against weaker airline booking volumes.

TUI also published details of its jet fuel hedging programme, which is aimed at controlling cost exposure from the spike in fuel prices.

Cost-cutting and efficiency drives have also helped the group manage pressure on margins, TUI said.

The company added that in some cases it has limited the number of available flights as part of its capacity management approach.

TUI’s full-year 2026 results are scheduled for December 9.