US confirms partial reopening of Strait of Hormuz, easing oil supply fears

Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz via a safe shipping corridor. The market for 80 ships transiting by April 30 sits at 1% YES.

Market reaction

The market moved modestly on the limited clearance plan. Odds for 80 ships transiting by April 30 remain at 1%, down from 51% a week ago. Traders are clearly skeptical that partial clearance can restore full traffic volume in time.

On oil, crude oil all-time high odds dropped to 0.5% YES from 2% yesterday. WTI hitting $160 in April holds at 0.2% YES.

Why it matters

The US choosing limited clearance rather than full demining reduces immediate supply disruption fears and takes pressure off oil prices. The collapse from 51% to 1% in one week on the ship transit market reflects how quickly traders repriced the likelihood of normal Hormuz traffic resuming before month-end.

What to watch

Actual USDC traded in the Strait of Hormuz market is $449, with $542 needed to move the price 5 points. That thin liquidity means a single large order could cause sharp swings. Crude oil markets are thicker, with $2,513 in USDC transacted in the last 24 hours.

Watch for updates from Admiral Brad Cooper at U.S. Central Command. Any confirmation of increased ship transit or an operational safe corridor could move these odds fast. At 1¢, a YES share pays $1 if 80 ships transit by April 30, a potential 100x return. But with just six days left, that bet requires rapid operational success.

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