US envoys travel to Pakistan for Iran talks amid peace deal speculation

US envoys Witkoff and Kushner are traveling to Pakistan for talks with Iran. The market for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 sits at 8.5% YES, down from 10% yesterday.

Pakistan is mediating as a neutral venue, marking a shift to lower-profile negotiations. The April 30 contract remains low, but later deadlines price in more optimism. The May 31 and June 30 contracts are at 34.5% and 52.5% YES, respectively. The largest jump is between April 30 and May 31, which means traders expect a possible catalyst in that window.

Volume across these peace deal markets hit $854,588 in USDC over the past 24 hours. It takes $27,667 in order book depth to move the April 30 contract by 5 points, showing real resistance to price swings. The largest single move was a 6-point spike at 11:14 AM.

This is a real shift from military posturing, but the April 30 odds say traders want concrete progress before pricing in an imminent deal. Buying YES at 8.5¢ pays $1 if it resolves, an 11.8x return. That bet only makes sense if strong signals of a breakthrough emerge within the next six days.

Watch for official announcements from Islamabad or statements from US and Iranian negotiators. Any acknowledged progress on terms would move these contracts fast.

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