Bitcoin (BTC) price trades below $77,000 on Friday, extending its capitulation from the previous week’s high at $82,300. Broader market consensus points to a higher likelihood that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise interest rates at the September meeting, as inflation concerns rise amid the war with Iran. Raydium (RAY) and Falcon (FF) have sustained gains over the last 24 hours, emerging as top performers.
US inflation concerns weigh on crypto
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) released on Thursday came in at 5.4% Year-on-Year in August, up from 4.8% in July and above the market consensus of 5.3%. The PPI data raises concerns about a potential rate hike at the Fed’s September 15-16 meeting. Markets expect a tighter monetary policy, with FedWatch Tool data showing a 72% probability of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike next week.
Bitcoin recorded a loss of over 2% on Thursday, triggered by the PPI data release, which reaffirmed hawkish expectations. In addition, CoinGlass data shows $446 million was liquidated over the last 24 hours in the broader crypto market, with $353 million from long positions, suggesting sell-side dominance.
Corroborating reduced optimism, the crypto market sentiment shows moderating bullish pressure, with CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index at 67 on Friday, sloping downward toward the neutral zone.
Bitcoin risks a steeper decline as momentum fades to neutral levels
Bitcoin trades below $77,000 at press time on Friday, extending a near-term pullback while maintaining a longer-term constructive tone. The King Crypto holds well above the 50-, 100- and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, which cluster just between $70,800 and $72,900, suggesting the broader uptrend is still supported.
From a technical perspective, BTC price consolidates above the 50% retracement level of the $97,924 to $57,800 downswing at $75,233. A confirmed breakout below this level could test the 50- and 200-day EMAs at $72,869 and $72,861, respectively, which hint at a potential Golden Cross pattern.
Momentum on the daily chart is losing bullish strength, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 54, down from the overbought zone, pointing to moderate, non-extreme momentum. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) extends negatively below its signal line, hinting that upside traction is starting to flip.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the broken support-turned-resistance trendline near $83,250, followed by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at roughly $87,476.
Raydium and Falcon Finance extend gains
Raydium is up 9% on Friday, extending its 17% rise from the previous day. The DeFi token trades at a 10-month high, with nearly 100% gains so far this month, reflecting a strong bullish phase.
RAY hovers well above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs near $0.8482, $0.7714, and $0.8412, respectively, reinforcing a firmly supportive backdrop. In addition, the 50-day EMA crosses above the 200-day EMA, signaling a Golden Cross, which typically confirms a bullish trend reversal.
Momentum readings remain stretched, as the RSI holds deep in overbought territory near 84, while the MACD continues to rise in positive territory, suggesting upside pressure persists even as the risk of a corrective pullback grows.
The Fibonacci retracement over the downswing $1.2910 to $0.5010 projects the 127.2% and 161.8% extension levels at $1.6700 and $2.3171, respectively, which could serve as the next bullish targets.
On the downside, initial support is now aligned with the recent breakout region around the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement at $1.2910, with deeper protection seen at the 78.6% retracement at $1.0542.
Falcon holds steady above $0.1600, sustaining a strong bullish bias with 40% gains so far this week. FF holds well above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs, which trail far below the market, clustered between $0.0820 and $0.0950, reinforcing the broader uptrend.
The RSI at 87 on the daily chart signals extreme overbought conditions, while the MACD and signal line rise with an expanding histogram profile above the zero line, hinting that upside momentum persists even as the rally risks becoming stretched.
The immediate resistance aligns with the April 10 high at $0.1764, followed by the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level at $0.2398, measured from $0.0570 to $0.1764.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.1385, with deeper pullbacks exposing the 50% retracement level at $0.1003.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
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