US-Iran strikes rattle Hormuz; Polymarket puts July normalization odds at 4.5%

U.S. Airstrikes on Iran Push Polymarket Odds of Strait of Hormuz Normalizing by July 31 Down to 4.5%

U.S. airstrikes on Iran and Tehran’s reported missile fire toward Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar have sharpened concerns about security around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for commercial shipping. On Polymarket, traders have sharply reduced the odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31, pushing the contract’s Yes price down to 4.5%.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket prices a 95.5% chance of “No” on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31, versus 4.5% for “Yes.”
• The market repriced after reports of new U.S. strikes on Iran and Iranian missiles affecting Gulf Arab states, signaling renewed risk around Hormuz shipping.
• The contract resolves on July 31, 2026, with current pricing down sharply from a prior 42.0% Yes level to 4.5%.

The United States launched new airstrikes against Iran early Thursday, and Iran responded by firing missiles that affected Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar, according to the report. The exchange raised new doubts about an interim deal meant to help end the war in the Persian Gulf. President Donald Trump warned that the U.S. was preparing for another night of strikes, saying the latest action was retaliation for Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz and arguing a fragile ceasefire was effectively over even as talks could continue. The report said the U.S. struck military sites and port facilities after Iran targeted merchant vessels off Oman, and that the latest round appeared larger, with sirens sounding at least twice in Bahrain, home to the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters. There was no immediate word of damage in the three Gulf Arab countries cited.

Polymarket Data: $13.51M Volume as “Yes” Crashes from 42% to 4.5% (95.5% “No”)

Polymarket’s “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” contract is trading at 4.5% Yes and 95.5% No, indicating traders see normalization by the deadline as highly unlikely. The Yes side has fallen from a previously cited 42.0% to 4.5%, a 37.5 percentage-point drop. Trading volume stands at about $13.51 million, suggesting deep engagement and relatively firm conviction around the No outcome at current prices.

Watch whether the Yes price stabilizes near the mid-single digits or rebounds from current levels as the July 31, 2026 resolution date approaches, alongside any sustained shift in liquidity and volume around the contract.

Beyond Hormuz: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching

Beyond the immediate shipping-risk trade, Polymarket activity has clustered around a broader set of Iran-linked political and security timelines. Traders are pricing 83.5% on “No” in “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” with $40.08 million in volume, while “Iran leader end of 2026?” has drawn $19.00 million as “Mojtaba Khamenei” leads at 83.4%. Diplomatic expectations remain active too, with “US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?” showing 36.5% for “December 31” on $8.86 million, and “Iran full airspace closure by…?” at 31.0% for “August 31” with a +6.5 pp move on $1.97 million.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
• Resolution window: Jul 31, 2026 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Leading implied prob.: 4.5%
• Volume: ~$13,512,105
• Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 4.5% / No 95.5%; No: Yes 4.5% / No 95.5%

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