US-Iran talks progress as Iran suspends nuclear program

Trump says US-Iran talks are “going very well.” The permanent peace deal by April 22 market is at 31.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago.

The statement follows Iran’s agreement to suspend its nuclear program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. April 30 odds climbed to 46.5% YES, doubling from 17% a week ago. The May 31 market is now at 63.5% YES.

Order books show depth, with $16,317 needed to move April 22 odds 5 points. May 31 shows similar depth at $13,322. Single large orders can still shift these markets; a 10-point drop on May 31 occurred at 5:10 PM.

The move depends on Iran’s compliance with nuclear suspension and US asset unfreezing. Trump’s statement pushes the narrative toward resolution but lacks concrete terms. A YES share for April 22, priced at 15¢, pays $1 if resolved, a 6.67x return. Traders clearly still see obstacles.

Watch for Trump’s upcoming Saturday news conference. It isn’t Iran-related, but any vague allusions could move odds. More important: specifics from US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff or Iranian Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi on actual deal terms.

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