US warns Iran against controlling Strait of Hormuz, dims hope for talks

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US won’t tolerate Iran normalizing control of the Strait of Hormuz. The market for diplomatic meetings with Iran by April 30 sits at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.

Rubio’s comments point to a hardened US stance, making any near-term diplomatic resolution less likely. The market for a diplomatic meeting by April 30 sits at 1% YES, a steep drop from 22% a week ago. With only six days left, traders see almost no chance of productive talks happening.

The market for a US-led blockade lift by May 31 also moved. It trades at 59.5% YES, down from 72% yesterday. The largest move was a 5-point spike to 62% at 3:50 PM, but it didn’t hold, suggesting traders remain skeptical about a near-term deal.

Market volume is $95,253 in USDC trades over 24 hours, with $8,995 needed to move the odds by 5 points. That combination shows strong conviction among current traders but leaves room for volatility if a large order hits.

At 1¢, buying a YES share would net $1 if successful, a 100x return. But the likelihood of Trump reversing course under current conditions looks low. Traders betting on an April 30 meeting would need a major shift in US policy or unexpected diplomatic progress.

Watch for Trump’s next move on Truth Social or any sign of a breakthrough in Islamabad. A sudden announcement of talks could move these odds fast.

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