What to know:
- 60.8% of Bitcoin hasn’t moved in 12 months, with major ETFs pulling large amounts off exchanges.
- Thin liquidity and institutional inflows could lead to sharper price moves.
- U.S. rate policy and Q3 ETF flows will decide if the squeeze impacts prices.
Bitcoin trading volumes have been a bit slow in the first half of 2026, but VanEck thinks it’s the surface level the calm. VanEck says, that the real story is about a tight supply structure. 60.8% of circulating Bitcoin hasn’t moved on-chain for more than 12 months which is a very high level historically.
Long-Term Holders Signal Low Sell Pressure Ahead
It indicates the sell pressure is expected to be low in the coming market cycle.On-Chain Signal and Key Data The 60.8% figure is a measure of “long-term holder supply” as the Glassnode-style on-chain approach. VanEck uses this metric to explain Bitcoin as a ” macro” asset to its holders rather than a ” trading” vehicle.
A spot Bitcoin ETF that has been issued by major institutions like VanEck, BlackRock, and Fidelity now have hundreds of thousands of BTC under their custodial custody, so a very large portion the supply has effectively been pulled from the live order books of the exchanges.
Also Read: Strategy’s $135M Bitcoin Sale Leaves $1.25B Plan Intact, VanEck Says
What’s at Stake From Investors’ and Institutions’ Point of View
Fund managers and investors are exposed to the risk of lower liquidation being able to trigger a sharper move in prices In particular with ETFs and corporate treasuries acting as inflows channels. er order books and greater price spikes after sudden increases in trading volumes.
But, Bitcoin miners and participants within the wider Bitcoin market can be heartened for Bitcoin’s role as collateral and not only a speculative crypto.
Also Read: VanEck BNB ETF Debuts as First U.S. Spot BNB Product
Thin Liquidity Meets Macro Uncertainty in 2026
Exchanges can expect thinn Dormancy is a perfect scenario for macro uncertainty, institutional accumulation through 2026 and limited retail trading. Even so, long-term holders might still decide to sell. Besides, ETF money flows come down to market sentiment.
Catalysts will be fed by US interest rate policy and the third-quarter’s ETF flows.
Also Read: Sui (SUI) Price Eyes a Rally Toward $1.16 as VanEck ETN Boosts Liquidity
This article contains market analysis and price predictions. These are not guarantees. Crypto markets are volatile. Always DYOR. Not financial advice.
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