Vistra (VST) Stock Falls After Q2 Revenue Misses Estimates by $1.7 Billion

TLDR

• Vistra stock fell 1.22% in pre-market trading after Q2 results
• Revenue came in at $4.02 billion, missing the $5.73 billion analyst estimate
• Adjusted EBITDA grew 31% year-over-year to $1.77 billion
• Full-year 2026 guidance reaffirmed at $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion Adjusted EBITDA
• Vistra announced the formation of Helix Digital Infrastructure with KKR, KIA, and NVIDIA

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Vistra Corp. (VST) fell 1.22% in pre-market trading on Friday after the company reported second quarter 2026 results that missed revenue expectations by a wide margin.

Vistra Corp., VST

The company posted revenue of $4.02 billion for the quarter, well below the analyst consensus of $5.73 billion. That also represents a 5.5% decline from $4.25 billion in the same period last year.

Despite the revenue miss, Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA came in at $1.77 billion, up 31% from $1.35 billion in Q2 2025. That is the number management is leaning on.

VISTRA $VST Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS

🔹 Revenue: $4.0B (Est. $5.46B) 🔴
🔹 Net Income: $305M (Est. $556M) 🔴
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $1.8B (Est. $1.64B) 🟢; +30% YoY
🔹 Operating Income: $553M (Est. $1.04B) 🔴

Affirms FY26 Guide:
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $6.8B-$7.6B
🔹 Adjusted FCFbG:…

— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) August 7, 2026

GAAP net income for the quarter was $305 million. That figure includes an unrealized loss of $472 million from hedges expected to settle in future years, which pulled the headline number down.

CEO Jim Burke pointed to the EBITDA growth as the real story. “Vistra delivered a more than 30% year-over-year increase in Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA,” Burke said in the earnings release.

For the first half of 2026, net income reached $1.334 billion compared to just $59 million in the first half of 2025. The improvement was driven by higher realized energy and capacity prices, as well as contributions from plants acquired from Lotus.

Helix Digital Infrastructure Launch

The headline strategic move this quarter was the formation of Helix Digital Infrastructure, a new venture formed alongside KKR, Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA), and NVIDIA. Vistra committed up to $1.0 billion initially and will serve as Helix’s preferred power provider.

Vistra also received Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approval for its pending acquisition of Cogentrix Energy. That deal has been in progress and now has a key regulatory hurdle cleared.

Construction on two Permian Basin natural gas units is continuing, along with development of solar facilities including Oak Hill 2 and Pulaski.

Guidance and Hedging

Vistra reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance. Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA is still expected between $6.8 billion and $7.6 billion. Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth is projected at $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion.

Looking ahead, the company has previously flagged an Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion for 2027. Those figures exclude any potential benefit from the Cogentrix acquisition.

On hedging, Vistra has covered approximately 100% of expected generation for 2026, 94% for 2027, and 72% for 2028 as of August 3.

Operationally, the company reported commercial availability of 97% or greater across its fleet during recent periods of extreme heat in Texas and the PJM market.

Vistra had total available liquidity of approximately $6.295 billion as of June 30, 2026, including $435 million in cash.

The company has also repurchased approximately $6.5 billion in stock since November 2021, reducing its outstanding count by around 30%. About $1.2 billion of buyback authorization remains, with completion expected no later than year-end 2027.