Vucic resignation plan lifts Polymarket odds of Putin exit to 12.5%

Serbia’s Vučić Signals Imminent Resignation, Pushing Polymarket “Putin Out by 2026” Odds Up to 12.5%

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said he plans to resign within weeks, a step that would set up early elections and spotlight leadership risk across parts of Europe. On Polymarket, traders nudged up the odds that Vladimir Putin is out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026, to 12.5% from 8.5%.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket prices a 12.5% chance that Putin is out as President of Russia by Dec. 31, 2026, versus 87.5% for No.
• The contract’s Yes odds rose 4.0 percentage points to 12.5% amid fresh headlines on a European leader signaling an imminent resignation and snap elections.
• The market resolves on 2026-12-31 18:30:00 UTC; the latest move took Yes from 8.5% to 12.5% with $9.74 million traded.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said he intends to resign within the next few weeks, a move that would trigger early presidential and parliamentary elections. He made the announcement while addressing supporters at a large pro-government rally in Belgrade, telling the crowd he would remain president only briefly before stepping down. The resignation would end his second and final mandate early, which had been due to run until mid-2027, and Vucic said he still plans to stay active in politics and support the ruling Serbian Progressive Party in the campaign. He did not give dates for his resignation or for dissolving parliament, but he previously indicated early elections would take place within three to four months and ruled out holding a vote in July or August. The political shift comes alongside heightened security concerns, including the discovery of explosive devices near a key gas infrastructure site that links Serbia’s network to Hungary, and ongoing strains tied to energy supply routes.

Polymarket Pricing and Volume: “Putin Out by Dec. 31, 2026” Trades $9.74M as Yes Jumps from 8.5% to 12.5%

In the Polymarket contract “Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?”, Yes last traded at 12.5% and No at 87.5%, with the market still leaning strongly toward Putin remaining in office through the resolution date. The latest quoted move shows a 4.0 percentage-point uptick in Yes from 8.5% to 12.5%, on total volume of $9,744,139. Liquidity appears concentrated on the No side at current pricing, while the modest Yes rebound keeps the contract far from a regime-change base case.

Watch for subsequent repricing if fresh political resignation headlines broaden beyond Serbia or if the Polymarket Yes leg holds above the low-teens after the recent 4-point jump into 12.5%.

Beyond Serbia and Russia: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching

Beyond leadership-risk pricing, Polymarket flows also show traders crowding into shorter-dated Russia and battlefield timelines. “Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?” is priced at 99.75% for No on $4,236,666 in volume, while “Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by…?” shows December 31 leading at 13.5% with $1,863,219 traded, underscoring how the platform’s most active geopolitical contracts tend to cluster around near-term political durability and milestone-based war outcomes.

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