TLDR
- Guggenheim raised its LLY price target to $1,273 from $1,235, maintaining a Buy rating
- LLY stock trades around $1,189, up 51% over the past year
- Guggenheim forecasts Q2 revenue of $20.66 billion, above consensus of $20.55 billion
- Weight-loss drug Foundayo sales expected to accelerate as consumer marketing ramped up in June
- Guggenheim raised its probability of success for retatrutide to 85%, projecting $25 billion in sales by 2035
Guggenheim analyst Seamus Fernandez raised his price target on Eli Lilly stock to $1,273 from $1,235 on Monday, keeping a Buy rating in place. The new target sits about 7% above where LLY currently trades at roughly $1,189.
LLY has climbed 51% over the past 12 months, giving the pharma giant a market cap of around $1.06 trillion. The stock is trading near its 52-week high of $1,249.
Fernandez updated his model ahead of Eli Lilly’s second-quarter earnings report, due August 5, to reflect prescription trends and foreign exchange assumptions. Guggenheim now expects Q2 revenue of $20.66 billion, ahead of the Wall Street consensus of $20.55 billion.
U.S. prescription volumes for tirzepatide — sold as Zepbound and Mounjaro — continue to show strong growth, which underpins Guggenheim’s Q2 estimates. Revenue has grown 47% year-over-year, hitting $72.25 billion over the last twelve months.
Weight-Loss Drug Pipeline Draws Attention
Eli Lilly’s newer obesity pill Foundayo launched in April, and Guggenheim trimmed its near-term estimates for the drug given the early stage of the rollout. However, the firm noted that consumer marketing only kicked off in earnest in early June, leaving room for the sales ramp to pick up.
Guggenheim expects the Q2 earnings call to center on a guidance raise, international expansion, and Medicare coverage of Eli Lilly’s weight-loss drugs.
On the pipeline side, Guggenheim lifted its probability of success for retatrutide — a next-generation weight-loss drug — to 85% from 70%. That follows data presented at the American Diabetes Association conference. The firm projects retatrutide sales could exceed $25 billion annually by 2035.
Broad Analyst Support
Guggenheim isn’t alone in its optimism. Truist Securities raised its LLY price target to $1,370, citing strong U.S. prescription growth for Zepbound and Mounjaro. Cantor Fitzgerald moved its target to $1,350 with an Overweight rating.
RBC Capital kept its Outperform rating with a $1,250 price target, pointing to a positive growth outlook.
Across 22 Wall Street analysts, LLY holds a consensus Strong Buy rating built on 20 Buy and two Hold recommendations issued in the last three months.
The average price target across that group sits at $1,294.06, implying roughly 17% upside from current levels.
Eli Lilly is also set to present 16 abstracts at the 2026 Alzheimer’s Association International Conference in London, covering its Alzheimer’s treatment Kisunla and related patient outcomes.
The company reports Q2 results on August 5.
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