TLDR
- MCD is down 13.3% in 2026, trading near two-year lows around $267.74
- Citi models US same-store sales down 2% in Q2, hitting a multi-year low
- US foot traffic dropped 4.6% year over year in Q2, with May the worst month
- Forward P/E of ~20.7x is the lowest multiple in over a decade
- Analysts hold a consensus “Moderate Buy” with a $336.32 price target
McDonald’s stock opened at $267.74 on Friday, sitting just above its 52-week low of $264.09. The stock is down 13.3% in 2026, badly trailing the S&P 500’s 10.6% gain over the same period.
The forward P/E multiple has dropped to around 20.7 times — the lowest level in more than a decade for the Golden Arches. The 50-day moving average sits at $277.07, and the 200-day is at $300.33, both well above the current price.
Citi analyst Jon Tower said McDonald’s appears to have failed to push through industry headwinds in Q2. He’s modeling US same-store sales down 2%, which would mark a multi-year low in performance relative to the fast food benchmark.
US foot traffic fell 4.6% year over year in the second quarter. May was the single worst month in that stretch.
Tower did offer a cautious note of optimism. He thinks Q2 could be the low point for both same-store sales and the valuation multiple, with a September investor event potentially giving McDonald’s a platform to lay out its growth plans.
McDonald’s launched six new drinks on May 6, including Strawberry Watermelon refreshers and a Sprite Berry Blast crafted soda. The drinks are caffeinated and aimed squarely at Gen Z, a demographic that has been drifting toward Dutch Bros and Celsius products.
New Menu Push Yet to Move the Needle
Whether the drinks and earlier Big Arch launch have failed to connect with consumers, or whether high fast food prices and GLP-1 drug adoption are the bigger culprits, the numbers aren’t improving yet.
The company last reported earnings on May 7, posting EPS of $2.83, beating the $2.74 estimate. Revenue came in at $6.52 billion, above the $6.47 billion consensus, and up 9.4% year over year.
Despite the beats, the stock has continued to slide. Analysts now expect full-year EPS of $12.86.
Analysts Cut Targets but Hold Buy Ratings
JPMorgan cut its price target from $325 to $305 but kept an “overweight” rating. Wells Fargo trimmed from $320 to $300, also keeping “overweight.” Morgan Stanley moved from $331 to $322 with an “equal weight” rating. Tigress Financial went the other way, raising its target from $385 to $390 with a “buy.”
Fifteen analysts rate MCD a Buy and twelve have it at Hold. The consensus target is $336.32 — roughly 25% above the current price.
On the institutional side, SEB Asset Management bought a new stake of 147,764 MCD shares worth around $45.9 million in Q1. Vanguard, State Street, and Geode all added to positions in Q4.
Insider activity has gone the other direction. Company insiders sold 8,681 shares worth roughly $2.46 million over the past three months.
MCD next reports earnings on August 4.
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