Why Wall Street Loves SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Right Now

TLDR

• SpaceX (SPCX) stock rose 3% to $149.24 after Needham reiterated its Buy rating and $250 price target.
• Needham says most of SpaceX’s AI compute deals will ramp up in Q4 2026, with one starting in December.
• The announced AI compute deals alone could bring in a combined annualized revenue run rate of about $54 billion.
• SpaceX is targeting roughly $100 billion in total annual recurring revenue by the end of 2026.
• Starship Flight 14 reached orbit on September 28 and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites.

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SpaceX stock climbed 3% on Wednesday to $149.24 a share. The move came after investment firm Needham reiterated its Buy rating and $250 price target on the company.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

Needham’s note followed talks with SpaceX’s investor relations team about the timing of its artificial intelligence compute contracts. The firm wanted more clarity on when the money starts flowing in.

According to Needham, most of the announced AI compute deals will begin ramping up in the fourth quarter of 2026. One deal is expected to kick off as early as December.

What the AI Deals Could Mean for Revenue

Those AI compute deals alone could generate a combined annualized revenue run rate of around $54 billion, based on Needham’s estimates. That’s a big number for a business segment that’s still fairly new for SpaceX.

It also lines up with management’s broader target. SpaceX has said it wants to hit roughly $100 billion in total annual recurring revenue by the end of 2026.

For context, the company pulled in $23 billion in revenue over the last twelve months. Analysts are forecasting 144% revenue growth for fiscal 2026, so the targets are steep but not out of nowhere.

Needham did trim some of its AI revenue estimates for the second half of 2026 and into 2027. The firm says it wants to account for the “lumpy” nature of contract renewals rather than assume a smooth ramp.

Analyst price targets on SPCX currently range from $140 to $450. That’s a wide spread, showing just how much disagreement there is on how to value the company right now.

InvestingPro’s analysis suggests SPCX looks overvalued compared to its Fair Value estimate. Investors will want to weigh that against the growth story Needham and others are backing.

Starship and Other Analyst Moves

Away from the AI headlines, SpaceX’s Starship program had a milestone moment. Starship Flight 14 successfully reached orbit on September 28.

The flight released 26 of the company’s first operational Starlink V3 satellites. It ended with a controlled splashdown in the Pacific Ocean.

The launch success has drawn a wave of analyst support. Bernstein and Mizuho both kept Outperform ratings, with price targets of $248 and $200 respectively.

BofA Securities reiterated its Buy rating too, setting a $235 price target. UBS also stayed at Buy with a $210 target, pointing to the Starship launches, cloud computing deals, and growing AI product adoption as reasons for optimism.

UBS is projecting third-quarter revenue of $13.8 billion for SpaceX. That would top the Street’s estimate of $12.9 billion.

The firm also expects adjusted EBITDA of $7.5 billion for the quarter. TD Cowen, meanwhile, initiated coverage on SpaceX with a Buy rating, flagging the company’s AI compute leasing business as a growth area to watch.

SpaceX’s market cap currently sits at around $2 trillion. Shares have traded between $104.83 and $225.64 over the past 52 weeks, with Wednesday’s session ranging from $145.47 to $150.06.