SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock price is headed for a volatile week amid macro pressures, a larger weighting, and a new Starship launch.
The four-hour chart also shows that SpaceX is facing an obstacle at $152, raising concerns about whether the stock price could drop below $140.
Events That Could Move SpaceX Stock Price This Week
There are three events that will influence SpaceX stock price performance this week, ranging from rocket launches to NASDAQ and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision.
Starship Test Flight 14 to Launch on September 18
SpaceX could launch the Starship test Flight 14 on September 18. The launch will take place from Starbase in Texas, and it could be a catalyst for SpaceX stock movements this week.
During this launch, SpaceX will also deploy 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites, adding weight to a recent SPCX price forecast by Pivotal Research saying the SPCX stock could reach $220 if Starlink increases its share in the $1.7 trillion wireless market.
If the Starship flight goes ahead as scheduled and is successful, it could bode well for SpaceX stock. However, a delayed launch or hiccups could push the stock below $140 next week.
Nasdaq Rebalancing
Nasdaq is also rebalancing its index at the end of September, and SpaceX could get a larger weighting.
Bloomberg notes that the increased weighting could trigger billions of dollars of buying by passive funds on the index.
One analyst on X notes that SpaceX stock will not gain after the Nasdaq rebalancing occurs. Instead, he notes that the gains could begin earlier as traders front-run this event.
FOMC Decision on September 16
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting taking place on September 15-16 after the release of the US CPI print could also move SpaceX stock price.
Data from CoinGape prediction markets shows that there is an 80% chance that the Fed will hike rates by 25 basis points. This hike could push SpaceX stock price below $140 if the market has not already priced in that event.
The Bank of Japan will also hike interest rates this week, adding to the strength of the Yen and causing concerns that the unwinding Yen carry trade would weaken demand for stocks like SPCX.
Analysts Split on SpaceX Stock Outlook
Analysts are split on where the SpaceX stock price is headed next week. One analyst on X notes that as the company’s revenue grows, especially with the new bullish forecast of a $100 billion ARR by year-end by the company’s CFO, it could extend its gains above $148.
Options trader Mike on X also notes that the SpaceX stock chart “looks very constructive,” but the price is not breaking out above $155 after being rejected twice at this price.
He noted that if the stock can close above this resistance of $155, it could move to $170 next.
As for the long-term outlook, analyst Marcos Milla notes that SpaceX stock price might drop to $117 in the next 12 months. However, he also admits that the shares might also surge to as high as $450.
SpaceX Stock Price Prediction – Will SPCX Drop Below $140?
SPCX stock price closed at $148 on September 12. The stock also remains above the support at the middle Bollinger band of $146.
If SPCX stock remains above this middle Bollinger band, it could move above the resistance at $152 and target the 161.8% Fib of $169.
The RSI reading of 59 also suggests that the momentum is still bullish, and the SpaceX stock price could avoid a drop below $140.
However, if the Fed’s potentially hawkish tone fuels an increase in selling pressure, SpaceX stock price could drop below the support at the middle Bollinger band and move to the 38.2% Fib of $139.
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