What to know:
- Bitcoin whale inflows to Binance have dropped 44% since June, while retail inflows are down only 22%, signaling a major shift in market behavior ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $465 million in net outflows over two trading sessions, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for nearly $415 million of the withdrawals.
- Analysts say Bitcoin’s next major move could depend on the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the $65,000 level emerging as a critical price zone.
Bitcoin is showing a clear split between the behavior of large holders and retail investors as traders prepare for the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting.
According to analyst Crypto Patel, Binance figures show that deposits of BTC by whales have declined by 44% in June, with the deposits by smaller investors dropping by 22%.
Small investors have been depositing almost twice the amount of Bitcoin deposited by whales, which indicates that whales are not unloading their coins before the Fed’s decision. Meanwhile, the price of Bitcoin was at $64,813.60.
Also Read: Asian Market Opens Mixed as Japan AI Stocks Rebound Ahead of Fed Decision
Binance Data Reveals Changing Market Structure
Between January and July of 2026, Binance recorded changes in deposits within 30-day periods, giving an indication of how the sentiment of the market was.
During the first half of the year, most of the deposits were from regular users and were recorded to be approximately $11–13 billion, while whales deposited around $3–4 billion. Whale deposits rose to $ 8- 9 billion in February as the price dropped due to heavy selling.
With Bitcoin recovering by April, deposits from whales reduced. There was another money rush in early June. However, after that, there was a reduction of deposits from both whales and regular users.
ETF Outflows Add to Market Caution
Institutional sentiment weakened last week. According to Farside Investors, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds from the United States lost $240 million on Friday and another $225 million on Thursday, putting an end to a seven-day streak of inflows.
Over $500 million in inflows from last week were reversed, while the IBIT from BlackRock represented almost $415 million in inflows. Although ETFs suffered from net outflows, they ended the week with a modest gain of around $34 million.
Fed Meeting Becomes the Next Catalyst
Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO, believes the ETF selling reflected short-term risk reduction rather than panic selling. He said rising geopolitical tensions, oil prices above $100, and growing expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy encouraged institutions to reduce exposure temporarily.
Levin expects institutional demand to recover if macroeconomic uncertainty continues to ease. He said the $65,000 level will be the key signal for the market, explaining:
If Monday closes above it on volume, institutions are repositioning into the reset. If it cracks, they’re waiting for better macro certainty.
He added that the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting will likely determine the next direction for institutional capital, stating:
The Fed meeting on July 28-29 is the next important filter once inflows resume. Right now we’re just trading off geopolitical noise. Capital doesn’t move without knowing if rates actually come down.
Also Read: WLFI Price Analysis: Can Bulls Break Resistance and Reach $0.058?
This article contains market analysis and price predictions. These are not guarantees. Crypto markets are volatile. Always DYOR. Not financial advice.
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