XRP Commodity Channel Index Hits Most Oversold Level Since the 2020 COVID Crash

The monthly XRP Commodity Channel Index (CCI) has dropped to its lowest level in six years, closing way below the -100 baseline in June.

The decline came amid a weak close in June, when the indicator stood at -134.61 following a nearly 22% drop in XRP’s price for the month. This made June the asset’s worst monthly performance since February 2025.

XRP Commodity Channel Index Hits 6-Year Low

While XRP has opened July with a small rebound, rising 0.61% to trade at $1.04487, the CCI has collapsed further this new month, currently sitting at -137.30. 

For context, when the CCI falls below -100, it usually points to oversold conditions. At -137.30, XRP now sits far below its 20-period average, suggesting that the current level of selling may not last for long.

The last time XRP’s CCI reached a similar level was in March 2020, during the COVID-19 market crash, when the price dropped below $0.20. During this period, the Commodity Channel Index crashed to -140.67, marking XRP’s bottom for that downturn.

After the crash, XRP’s price recovered considerably and climbed to around $1.96 within the following year. While it is important to consider this historical context, it does not necessarily mean the same kind of recovery will happen again.

How the Current Decline Compares to 2020

The 1-month chart shows a similarity between the CCI low in March 2020 and the one recorded in June 2026, as both sit at nearly the same depth below the oversold level. 

However, the reasons behind the two drops are different. In 2020, the market fell quickly due to an external shock and then recovered just as fast. This time, XRP has been moving down gradually since Q4 2025 within a falling channel.

The CCI also shows a secondary signal line at -3.69, as the main CCI remains at -137.30. The gap between these two lines creates room for a possible crossover, which traders often see as an early sign of recovery. 

However, for now, no crossover has happened, so the oversold reading alone does not confirm a reversal. The price still needs to show clear signs of strength before any change in direction could emerge.

XRP Ichimoku Cloud Confirms Bearish Trend

Meanwhile, the monthly Ichimoku Cloud confirms the extent of the ongoing bearish trend, as all four main components remain above XRP’s current price of $1.04487. 

Specifically, the Tenkan-sen stands at $1.79398, while the Kijun-sen sits higher at $2.02423, placing it about 94% above the current price. Since the Tenkan-sen is below the Kijun-sen, the chart confirms a bearish crossover, showing that short-term movement still follows the broader downtrend.

Further, Senkou Span A is at $1.90910, and Senkou Span B is at $1.97650, forming a bearish cloud where Span B stays above Span A. This presents a strong resistance zone between $1.90910 and $2.02423, meaning XRP must push through a tight range of about $0.12 before the structure can turn neutral.

The only slightly positive signal comes from the Chikou Span, which compares the current price of $1.04487 with past price action from May 2024, when XRP traded below $1.00. The position gives a mild bullish signal but has little weight since the rest of the indicators remain clearly bearish.

XRP Falling Channel and Key Price Levels

Also, XRP has moved within a falling channel since October 2025, forming a downward pattern across nine monthly candles. The upper boundary of this channel now sits between $1.40 and $1.60, while the lower boundary points to a range between $0.85 and $0.90. This lower area lines up with a key support level at $0.87493.

At the moment, XRP trades at $1.04487, just $0.04487 above the important $1.00 level. If the price closes below $1.00 on the monthly chart, it would break a key level that supported the early stages of the 2024 rally. 

If this happens, the next support comes in at $0.87493, followed by $0.66158, a level last seen in early 2023 and about 37% below the current price.

On the upside, XRP faces multiple resistance levels. It must first move past $1.20, then break above the channel’s upper boundary between $1.40 and $1.60. 

After that, it would need to clear the Tenkan-sen at $1.79398, the cloud between $1.90910 and $1.97650, and finally the Kijun-sen at $2.02423. Only a strong move above all these levels would shift the overall trend from bearish to neutral.