What to know:
- XRP shows weakening MACD signals hinting at a potential bearish cross.
- Three-month RSI at 54 indicates cooling momentum above prior cycle bottoms.
- Gaussian channel support trends near $0.77 with an expanding cycle structure.
XRP is seen to have mixed technicals, with positive trends in the long term but signals of slowing momentum. There are concerns that there may be an upcoming consolidation or even an early correction.
At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.38 with a 24-hour trading volume of $1.42 billion and a market capitalization of $85.81 billion. XRP price increased 0.07% in the last 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data.
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XRP Long-Term Structure Holds Firm
On May 3, 2026, a prominent crypto analyst, ChartNerd, posted an analysis showing that XRP is operating in a broader cycle pattern than responding to shorter price movements.
This analysis reveals a Gaussian Channel structure of three months, which in the past has seen cycle lows increasing steadily. At present, the lower channel is at around $0.77, although it may rise higher if the channel sustains itself.
Weaker signals for momentum are highlighted in the report. The three-month MACD is getting smaller, heading towards a possible bearish cross. According to past experience, such a signal was recorded during the cycle phase of 2022, which corresponds to the macro bottom but not the structural one.
Meanwhile, the three-month RSI is still stuck at 54, which is higher than where we saw previous cycle bottoms near the 47 mark. In other words, momentum has slowed down but hasn’t yet reached historically oversold levels that would be associated with reversals from previous cycles.
Although there has been some short-term deviation of price movement from momentum movement, XRP is still exhibiting a pattern of higher highs over a longer time horizon.
XRP Macro Range Expands Uncertainty
Adding to the debate, crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO highlighted a long-term macro outlook indicating that XRP could be trading in a wider range with a target price of between $17 and $27. It should be noted that this phase is indicative of structural positioning and not a trend confirmation.
Overall, XRP is currently in a complicated technical phase since there is no clear correlation between the cycle structure and the momentum indicators. The next major trend development will be dependent on how momentum behaves in the upcoming months.
This article contains market analysis and price predictions. These are not guarantees. Crypto markets are volatile. Always DYOR. Not financial advice.
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